Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
$59.50+0.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.77 → 2.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSEX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver EPS near $2.58 in FY26 | Profit margins and earnings per share should stay stable. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.50 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated water utility with a multi-year thesis built around infrastructure investment and measured growth. The thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum has weakened and the evidence on execution quality is fragile.
Valuation is described as neutral, with MSEX at a 1.0 premium versus peers and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The priced-in assessment says fragility is low because weak execution quality is not joined by the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the latest earnings miss and a 41% estimated miss probability make the next report a meaningful execution test. Over the multi-year view, nine-month revenue and third-quarter operating income were higher than a year earlier, while infrastructure spending was progressing against the annual plan. Management scores improved, but reported service reliability is not directly quantified.
The near-term downside scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could signal weaker expectations. A more supportive backdrop would come from Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers. Over the multi-year view, the central test is whether infrastructure investment and customer, demand, and rate-related revenue gains continue without weakening execution.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MSEX’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by recent financial strength and ongoing infrastructure investment, but the latest miss raises near-term execution risk. The outlook hinges on guidance and continued delivery against the company’s growth and reliability priorities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Middlesex Water Company's published investment case. The stated target is FCF yield > 0%. |
| Improving |
| FCF yield remains negative over next 4 quarters |
Free cash flow yield: -2.38% As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 2026-2.38 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Invest about $126 million in utility infrastructure | Middlesex Water plans to invest $126 million in infrastructure in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $100 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $30.411M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$126 million CAPEX. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202630,411,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 12% annually | A primary condition in Middlesex Water Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Revenue growth: 11.3% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202611.303174 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $2.82 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.99 | $236,100,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.99 | $237,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.99 | $237,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.99 | $237,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.99 | $237,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.99 | $237,600,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.77 | $268,564,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.78 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.77 | $230,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.75 | $233,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.75 | $233,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.75 | $233,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.82 | $233,200,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.82 | $233,200,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.82 | $233,200,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.