Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
$59.50+0.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSEX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Middlesex Water Company announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing these results is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Form 8-K by reference. The information in Item 2.02, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: These factors helped drive higher revenue in the first three quarters. A drop could weaken the recent earnings growth.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue from the Middlesex and Tidewater systems grows again year over year. The company cites demand or customer use as a driver.
Less concerning ifRevenue from the Middlesex and Tidewater systems falls from last year. Or demand and customer use no longer add revenue.
Why it matters: Middlesex had spent $84 million through September, or 67% of its plan. The year-end total will show whether spending stayed on pace.
Supportive ifThe company reports close to $126 million invested in 2026, matching its stated annual plan.
Worry ifThe company reports less than $126 million invested for 2026, or cuts the plan.
Why it matters: The new rate is a 5.56% increase and continues a long record of yearly increases. The payment confirms delivery of that announced step.
Supportive ifMiddlesex pays $0.38 per share on December 1 to holders of record on November 16.
Worry ifMiddlesex delays, cancels, or cuts the declared $0.38 payment.
Why it matters: Higher demand and labor costs raised expenses. Another gap could slow earnings growth even if revenue rises.
Worry ifIn a later quarter, operating expense growth exceeds revenue growth year over year.
Less concerning ifIn a later quarter, operating expense growth stays below revenue growth year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $231 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,184 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.