Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.26-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSEX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Middlesex Water Company announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing these results is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this Form 8-K by reference. The information in Item 2.02, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subje…
Why it matters: Regulatory decisions can change revenue and growth plans. Good news helps future investments.
Supportive ifWatch for NJBPU to approve more rate hikes or funding for infrastructure projects.
Worry ifWatch for NJBPU to deny requests for rate hikes or funding for infrastructure projects.
Why it matters: Customer growth drives revenue. If growth slows, it may signal challenges in the market.
Watch forCustomer growth reported above 3% year over year in Q2 2026.
Also watch forCustomer growth reported below 1% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More customer demand helps revenue growth and operational success. It fits with strategic goals.
Supportive ifCustomer consumption increases by more than 5% in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifCustomer consumption goes down or stays the same in Q3 compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is crucial for long-term growth and operational excellence.
Watch forMiddlesex gives a clear update on the $506 million plan, showing good progress.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the $506 million plan may mean possible strategic problems.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,103 loss on $10,000 · 21.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on this investment is key for long-term growth and reliable operations.
Supportive ifAt least 75% of the $126 million investment will be done by year-end.
Worry ifAnnouncement of delays or cuts to the planned $126 million investment.
Why it matters: This investment is key for improving service and supporting future growth.
Supportive ifManagement will share details on the $126M investment progress.
Worry ifNo news or delays are reported for the $126M investment.
Why it matters: News about the $126 million infrastructure investment shows a focus on growth.
Supportive ifThe company says it has completed over 70% of the $126 million investment.
Worry ifThe company reports less than 50% of the $126 million investment is done.
Why it matters: The company plans a $506 million investment from 2026 to 2028. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifProgress reports indicate that at least 25% of the $506 million plan is underway by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo significant progress reported on the $506 million plan by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show good financial health. They also show commitment to shareholders and build trust.
Supportive ifMiddlesex declares the $0.36 dividend for Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifMiddlesex reduces the dividend payout below $0.36 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth signals strong demand and effective management. It supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 operating revenues increase year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 operating revenues increase year over year by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Earnings per share (EPS) growth signals strong financial health. Consistent earnings can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $0.57.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS reported below $0.57.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows strong financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifCompany declares a Q4 dividend of at least $0.36 per share.
Worry ifThe company announces a Q4 dividend cut below $0.36 per share.
Why it matters: The meeting may share details about the company's plans. It can change how investors feel.
Watch forGood comments from shareholders or news shared at the meeting.
Also watch forBad comments or no important news during the meeting.
Why it matters: Earnings per share (EPS) growth signals strong financial health and operational success.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at or above $0.79.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $0.79.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows strong finances. It also helps shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend is $0.36 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend payout falls below $0.36 for Q3 2026.