Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Match Group (MTCH)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.16-2.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.23 → 2.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTCH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of 38% in Q2 2026 | Profit margins aim for 38% adjusted EBITDA in Q2. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 38% in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature consumer internet business with a product-led growth story, rather than a pure turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes MTCH as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment calls the setup justified with low fragility, not a clear case of excessive expectations.
Near term, product-led growth has support from Hinge revenue growth and improving Tinder engagement, while lower operating costs show continued efficiency efforts. Cost execution is mixed, and the recent earnings miss plus a run of peer misses leave some risk of weaker results or guidance; the broader sector backdrop is also a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, the key negative scenario is a guidance cut, which would signal weaker execution. A more favorable setup depends partly on Fed rate cuts and continued strong results and guidance from large Communication Services companies, alongside continued progress in product engagement and cost discipline.
For the 1 to 3 year view, MTCH’s thesis remains intact, with product progress and recent financial strength balanced against sector pressure and earnings execution risk. The main evidence to watch is guidance, engagement, and whether cost discipline continues. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company steadily raises dividends, recently to $0.20 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.20 |
Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.20 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue near $3.41B to $3.54B in 2026 | A primary condition in Match Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.41B revenue in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.41B in FY26 | Revenue: $891.232M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.41B revenue in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026891,232,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.20 → $2.98 · observed estimates
$3.61B → $3.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.10 | $3,612,896,156 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.20 | $3,612,088,530 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.20 | $3,610,232,300 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.10 | $3,612,896,156 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.20 | $3,610,232,300 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.10 | $3,611,225,552 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.10 | $3,611,225,552 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.10 | $3,611,225,552 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.20 | $3,621,788,510 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.75 | $3,619,514,830 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.75 | $3,619,514,830 | 4 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.24 | $3,619,588,349 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.25 | $3,618,511,372 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.25 | $3,618,511,372 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.25 | $3,618,511,372 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.25 | $3,618,511,372 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.25 | $3,618,511,372 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.23 | $3,617,346,890 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.23 | $3,617,320,875 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.23 | $3,618,369,485 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.23 | $3,618,369,485 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.23 | $3,618,369,485 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.23 | $3,618,369,485 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.23 | $3,624,316,853 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.23 | $3,624,306,327 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.22 | $3,621,841,210 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.22 | $3,621,841,210 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.23 | $3,622,780,410 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.23 | $3,622,780,410 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.23 | $3,622,780,410 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.23 | $3,622,780,410 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.05 | $3,600,215,144 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.98 | $3,581,152,868 | 8 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.