Match Group (MTCH)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.21+4.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTCH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Why it matters: Lower costs helped Q2 adjusted EBITDA rise 14% while revenue fell 1%. A cost rebound could weaken that profit trend.
Watch forOperating costs and expenses fall at least 9% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forOperating costs and expenses rise year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue tests whether Match Group can meet its latest range. Q2 revenue fell 1% year over year.
Watch forQ3 revenue is above $895 million and is not down year over year.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $885 million or falls more than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Hinge revenue grew 22% in Q2. Its international growth is a key part of management's $1 billion goal for 2027.
Supportive ifHinge reports year-over-year revenue growth of at least 22% in a coming quarter and keeps its $1 billion 2027 goal.
Worry ifHinge reports revenue growth below 22% year over year, or management withdraws the $1 billion 2027 goal.
Why it matters: Tinder's user trends improved in Q2, and management said July trends strengthened further. A continued rebound would back the product changes.
Supportive ifTinder's year-over-year DAU decline is smaller than 4% in Q3, or DAU returns to growth.
Worry ifTinder's year-over-year DAU decline is 4% or worse in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,726 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.