Matador Resources (MTDR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.15-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in FY 2026: FCF guidance $1.0B vs $1.15B target.
Matador Resources has a cheap valuation with a PE of 9.86 versus peers at 16.17. Free cash flow is expected to rise to about $1.15 billion in 2026. The company raised its capital spending and free cash flow guidance recently. Dividend payments are stable and slightly increased, showing capital return discipline.
Revenue fell 33% year-over-year in Q1 2026 despite an EPS beat. The company cut guidance concurrently with the beat, signaling risks. Risky hedging practices may hurt future results. The recent sharp share price selloff and volatile management raise concerns about execution.
The stock trades about 14% below our fair value near $60, which is itself 14% below the Street median target of $70. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our view is cautious given recent guidance cuts and market stress.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.30 per quarter
Continue paying quarterly cash dividends at $0.375 per share as per Board policy adopted in October 2025.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a cyclical investment focused on the energy sector. The current thesis state reflects a recovery in financial performance, but management's volatility and sector risks remain concerns.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market seems to be pricing in some fragility due to the turbulent sector environment, rather than a full recovery.
Management is on track with increasing production guidance and maintaining dividend payments, though expansion efforts through acquisitions show mixed results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the industry has seen recent misses from peers.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on production targets. Additionally, sector performance, particularly from major players, and potential inflationary pressures could significantly impact MTDR's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company beat earnings expectations recently. It also increased production guidance for 2026. The CEO's stock purchase shows confidence in future performance. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY 2026
Breaks if: Additional guidance cuts or major negative news on hedging or capital allocation
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MTDR's performance will depend on management execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.