Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Matador Resources (MTDR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$49.87-0.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.88 → 9.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or increase dividend payments | Dividend payments are stable and slightly increased, showing capital return discipline. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.30 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.38 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.375 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MTDR is a cyclical energy producer with a multi-year view tied to capital-efficient production, drilling inventory, and balance-sheet progress. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes MTDR as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, though the sector remains turbulent.
Near-term results have been strong relative to the industry, and management reported production above its prior guidance midpoint before raising full-year production guidance without changing capital spending guidance. Longer term, added drilling locations support inventory, but revenue declined across the cited periods and debt-reduction progress is mixed; a guidance reversal would also damage credibility.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued capital-efficient production growth and execution on the expanded drilling inventory and debt reduction. Near term, guidance credibility and sector signals matter: continued strength from COP, EOG, and OXY would sustain the energy-sector tailwind, while weaker results or lower guidance could erode it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MTDR’s thesis has support from operational execution, peer-relative valuation, and a sector tailwind, but revenue trends, management delivery, and sector conditions remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected to rise to about $1.15 billion in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| Free cash flow falls below $1.0 billion in FY 2026 |
Free cash flow: $569.16M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.15 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026569,160,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable and effective management execution | A supporting condition in Matador Resources's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or major negative surprises. | Improving | Additional guidance cuts or major negative news on hedging or capital allocation | No guidance cuts; 2 earnings beats vs target of no cuts MTDR beat earnings in Aug and Nov, closed $1.26B Paloma deal, and CEO bought stock. No guidance cuts reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 20% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Matador Resources's published investment case. The stated target is >= 20% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 32.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 20% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 202632.511571 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.97 → $9.74 · observed estimates
$4.37B → $4.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.97 | $4,367,884,382 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.28 | $4,506,537,520 | 18 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.28 | $4,506,537,520 | 18 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.06 | $4,472,827,342 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.47 | $4,398,699,360 | 15 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.61 | $4,475,367,310 | 15 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.61 | $4,475,367,310 | 15 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.18 | $4,528,416,030 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.20 | $4,555,625,324 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.20 | $4,555,625,324 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.78 | $4,504,440,770 | 14 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.64 | $4,465,883,910 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.64 | $4,465,883,910 | 14 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.18 | $4,577,272,383 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.09 | $4,658,101,281 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.14 | $4,673,865,986 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.14 | $4,673,865,986 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.14 | $4,673,865,986 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.14 | $4,673,865,986 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.14 | $4,673,865,986 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.17 | $4,681,336,575 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.18 | $4,677,205,179 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.24 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.34 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.34 | $4,681,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.45 | $4,703,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.45 | $4,703,543,780 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.45 | $4,703,543,780 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.59 | $4,703,543,780 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.65 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.70 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.70 | $4,716,877,114 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.83 | $4,746,679,169 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.83 | $4,746,679,169 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.83 | $4,746,679,169 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.83 | $4,746,679,169 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.80 | $4,746,679,169 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.80 | $4,746,679,169 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.80 | $4,749,805,365 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 10 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.88 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.01 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.01 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.01 | $4,751,882,143 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.01 | $4,754,215,476 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.09 | $4,755,321,349 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.26 | $4,793,412,407 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.47 | $4,828,024,470 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.47 | $4,828,024,470 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.47 | $4,826,651,118 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.47 | $4,826,651,118 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.68 | $4,860,019,539 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.69 | $4,860,387,960 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.77 | $4,878,861,644 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.77 | $4,878,866,576 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.84 | $4,887,340,592 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.84 | $4,887,340,592 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.84 | $4,887,340,592 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.84 | $4,887,340,592 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.84 | $4,887,345,525 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.84 | $4,887,345,525 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.84 | $4,887,345,525 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.84 | $4,893,825,610 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.84 | $4,893,825,608 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.84 | $4,893,825,608 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.84 | $4,922,047,830 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.74 | $4,920,153,736 | 14 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.