Matador Resources (MTDR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.15-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
MTDR — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-24
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 22, 2026, MRC Permian Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Matador (“ MRC Permian ”), and, solely for the purposes of guaranteeing the obligations of Purchaser, MRC Energy entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “ Ridge Runner Purchase Agreement ” and, together with the Paloma Purchase Agreement, the “ Purchase Agreements ”) with Ridge Runner Resources II, LLC (“ Ridge Runner ”), pursuant to which Ridge Runner has agreed to cause certain of its subsi…
Why it matters: Steady production rates would show the Woodford play's potential and Matador's plan.
Watch forRae's Creek well production rates remain above 2,200 BOE per day.
Also watch forRae's Creek well production rates drop below 2,200 BOE per day.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well Matador is handling its new acquisitions. They also show overall production growth.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 production guidance to over 11,600 BOE per day.
Also watch forProduction guidance stays at or below 10,600 BOE per day. This shows challenges.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will grow Matador's assets and production. This will help cash flow.
Supportive ifPaloma and Ridge Runner deals close as planned in Q4 2026. This adds assets.
Worry ifAcquisitions face delays or fail to close, hindering growth plans.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends are paid on time without cuts for two quarters.
Worry ifDividends are cut or delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $483 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,953 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completion of the pipeline is crucial for selling gas at better prices. It could significantly improve revenue.
Supportive ifHugh Brinson pipeline begins flowing gas to Henry Hub prices as planned.
Worry ifPipeline completion is late or there are problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and how well the company operates.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue drop or fails to meet analyst expectations.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows recent purchases and improvements are working.
Supportive ifQ3 production growth is over 7% compared to last year. This shows success.
Worry ifQ3 production growth is under 7% compared to last year. This shows challenges.
Why it matters: New production guidance will show if the company can boost output. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifProduction guidance for 2026 is higher than before.
Worry ifProduction guidance for 2026 stays the same or is lower.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal shows strong cash flow. It will help pay off debt.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow for 2026 is about $900 million. This shows strong results.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow is much less than $900 million. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Lower drilling costs will help make more money and improve operations. This supports growth.
Supportive ifDrilling costs per completed lateral foot drop to $640. This shows better efficiency.
Worry ifDrilling costs stay above $640. This suggests there are inefficiencies.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health and management's trust in cash flow.
Watch forDividends are maintained or increased from the current $0.375 per share.
Also watch forDividends are cut or paused, showing cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Reducing debt would make Matador's balance sheet and finances stronger.
Supportive ifNet debt reduction exceeds $350 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNet debt reduction is less than $350 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will add significant acreage and production to Matador's portfolio. It is a key step in expanding their operations.
Supportive ifThe Paloma Acquisition will close in Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Higher production from the new assets will validate the acquisition's value and enhance cash flow.
Supportive ifProduction from Paloma assets exceeds 11,100 BOE per day in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProduction from Paloma assets falls below 10,600 BOE per day in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Lower well costs will help Matador make more money. This supports their goals for capital use.
Supportive ifWell costs for new wells drop to $640 per completed lateral foot in Q3 2026.
Worry ifWell costs remain above $795 per completed lateral foot in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Matador's promise to give back to shareholders. It also shows their financial health.
Watch forThe dividend is paid as scheduled on September 8, 2026.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.