Matador Resources (MTDR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.37-7.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTDR — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-21
Regulation FD Disclosure. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a press release issued by Matador Resources Company (the “Company”) on October 21, 2026 , announcing an amendment to the Company’s dividend policy (the “Policy”) and the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock. The dividend is being paid pursuant to the Policy. The payment of future dividends will be made at the discretion of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) and will depend on the Company’s results…
Why it matters: The deal would add 13,600 net acres in the Woodford play. A close would support Matador's plan to grow its drilling inventory.
Supportive ifMatador reports that the Ridge Runner deal closed in Q4 2026 and confirms the 13,600 net acre addition.
Worry ifMatador reports that the deal did not close in Q4 2026, or that the planned acreage addition was reduced.
Why it matters: The Paloma release tied the planned debt paydown to the fourth-quarter closings and commodity prices. The amount will show progress on debt reduction.
Supportive ifMatador reports paying down $350 million or more of RBL debt in Q4 2026, after the acquisition closings.
Worry ifMatador reports a paydown below $350 million, or says the planned paydown was delayed.
Why it matters: Matador raised its quarterly dividend by 17%. The December payment is the first test of the new policy.
Supportive ifMatador pays $0.4375 per share on December 4, 2026, as declared. It keeps that quarterly rate in its next dividend announcement.
Worry ifMatador cuts, delays, or does not pay the $0.4375 dividend declared for December 4, 2026.
Why it matters: Matador raised its 2026 oil growth view to as much as 7%. Q3 results test whether strong output continued.
Supportive ifOn the November 3 earnings call, Matador reports Q3 oil output above its prior range of 123,000–125,000 barrels per day. Or, it keeps full-year oil growth guidance at up to 7%.
Worry ifQ3 oil output falls below 123,000 barrels per day, or Matador cuts its 2026 oil growth guidance below the prior 4% view.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $499 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,953 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.