Matador Resources (MTDR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.15-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put MTDR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in FY 2026: FCF guidance $1.0B vs $1.15B target.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 30% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMatador Resources must continue expanding its Delaware Basin footprint to justify its price. Revenue grew 32% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations by 30%. It trades at 9.3× P/E versus a peer median of 18×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. The primary risk is a potential credibility hit if guidance is cut after a recent raise, with a 27% miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. MTDR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering MTDR (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MTDR in the last 4 months.
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Compare MTDR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MTDR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase production guidance for 2026
Growth target aligns with increased production guidance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $59.15
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $59.15.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain dividend payments
CEO's stock purchase signals confidence in future performance.
Risky hedging could impact future guidance.
Advances: Increase production guidance for 2026
Acquisition supports growth objectives for 2026.
Earnings beat supports positive guidance.