Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.29+9.26%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.84 → 4.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net debt-to-capital ratio near 17.4% | The balance sheet remains stable with net debt-to-capital near 17.4%. | Intact | net debt-to-capital ratio rises above 18% next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical homebuilding business with a value-oriented setup, not a clear-cut durable growth story. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: community count is growing, but earnings quality is fragile and recent momentum has weakened.
The evidence describes MTH as cheap versus peers, with medium confidence in that assessment. The available data do not show precisely what earnings expectations the market assumes, and the recent stock reaction to thesis changes has been muted.
Near term, weaker operating results remain a concern: third-quarter home closing revenue and gross margin were below a year earlier, and MTH reported an earnings miss on October 28. Management has moderated land spending and prioritized margins, while community count grew; full-year guidance has also moved toward lower revenue and closing volume versus 2025.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to the negative execution signal, while stable guidance would leave the current concerns to be assessed against results. Over the multi-year view, community growth and disciplined capital use need to support the business as market conditions change; earnings and guidance from DHI, PHM, and LEN offer sector signals in either direction.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis combines a cheap-versus-peers valuation and ongoing community growth with fragile earnings quality, declining year-over-year results, and a recent miss. The key question is whether management can balance margins and growth without further weakening guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Meritage Homes Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=345 active communities. |
| Intact |
| community count falls below 335 next quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 19.5% | A primary condition in Meritage Homes Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~19.5% gross margin. | Under Pressure | gross margin falls below 19% in 2025 | Gross margin: 17.35% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~19.5% gross margin. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 30, 202617.350588 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025 | The company targets revenue near $1.5 billion in 2025. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $1.46B in 2025 | Revenue: $1.168B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.5B revenue. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 30, 20261,168,433,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.48 → $4.46 · observed estimates
$5.97B → $5.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.34 | $5,937,553,046 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.14 | $5,920,095,002 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.48 | $5,971,253,920 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.34 | $5,903,185,640 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.19 | $5,869,973,140 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.19 | $5,869,973,140 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.10 | $5,820,723,140 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.10 | $5,820,723,140 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.16 | $5,903,897,873 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.04 | $5,813,183,587 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.98 | $5,795,799,502 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.93 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.84 | $5,791,012,064 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.73 | $5,776,444,057 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.65 | $5,720,754,260 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.65 | $5,720,754,260 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.65 | $5,720,754,260 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.65 | $5,720,754,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.65 | $5,720,754,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.56 | $5,699,729,483 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.49 | $5,662,173,927 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.15 | $5,605,958,774 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.63 | $5,275,554,885 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.63 | $5,275,554,885 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.63 | $5,275,554,885 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.63 | $5,275,554,885 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.46 | $5,177,110,440 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.