Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$67.33-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
MTH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-29
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On June 24, 2026, Meritage Homes Corporation (the “Company”) entered into the Twelfth Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Twelfth Amendment”), which amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of June 13, 2014 (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”). Among other things, the Twelfth Amendment increases the facility size to $980.0 million, amends the accordion feature to permit the facility size to be increased…
Why it matters: A drop over 30% shows big problems with making money. This may upset investors.
Worry ifQ3 net earnings down more than 30% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net earnings down less than 30% year-over-year or growing.
Why it matters: A lower ratio indicates better balance sheet health. It shows the company is managing debt wisely.
Supportive ifNet debt-to-capital ratio is better at less than 17.4%.
Worry ifNet debt-to-capital ratio is worse at more than 17.4%.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show strong cash flow. It would also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Increased land costs could squeeze margins further, impacting profitability. This could lead to lower earnings.
Worry ifLand acquisition costs rise more than 10% from one quarter to the next.
Less concerning ifLand acquisition costs stay the same or fall from one quarter to the next.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $361 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,767 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If this target is exceeded, it shows strong growth. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifCommunity count growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifCommunity count growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable prices show strong demand. This may mean better feelings from consumers and fewer incentives.
Supportive ifAverage sales price on orders stays steady above $382,000.
Worry ifAverage sales price on orders drops below $382,000.
Why it matters: A rise in net earnings shows better profits. It also means market conditions are improving.
Supportive ifNet earnings for Q2 exceed $55 million.
Worry ifNet earnings for Q2 fall below $55 million.
Why it matters: A higher gross margin means better cost control. It also shows stronger pricing power in a tough market.
Supportive ifHome closing gross margin improves to above 17.5%.
Worry ifHome closing gross margin declines further below 17.5%.
Why it matters: Increasing community count supports growth. It shows the company is expanding its market presence.
Supportive ifCommunity count rises above 345 by next quarter.
Worry ifCommunity count stays at or below 345.
Why it matters: If the drop is more than 5%, it shows market problems. It also shows management is cautious.
Worry ifQ3 home closing revenue down year over year worse than 5%.
Less concerning ifHome closing revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Higher incentives may show weaker demand and pressure on profits.
Worry ifIncentive use rates rise above current levels. This hurts gross profits.
Less concerning ifIncentive use rates fall. This suggests stronger demand and better profits.
Why it matters: An increase would suggest stronger demand and pricing trends in the market.
Supportive ifHome order value increases year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifHome order value decreases year over year.
Why it matters: A lower gross margin means costs are going up or prices are under pressure. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 home closing gross margin below 17.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 home closing gross margin at or above 17.5%.
Why it matters: A drop below this price would suggest ongoing pricing pressure and affect margins.
Worry ifAverage sales price on closings drops below $373,000.
Less concerning ifAverage sales price on closings remains above $373,000.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may change the Consumer Discretionary sector. This could affect Meritage's performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: A better gross margin shows improved cost control and stronger pricing power.
Supportive ifQ2 gross margin reported above 17.5%.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin reported below 17.5%.
Why it matters: Matching or beating last quarter's revenue shows demand is coming back. This may mean better market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 home closing revenue reaches or exceeds $1.1 billion.
Worry ifQ2 home closing revenue falls below $1.1 billion.
Why it matters: More incentives can show weak demand. If they go up a lot, it may hurt profits.
Worry ifIncentive use is over 20% of sales in Q2.
Less concerning ifIncentive use stays below 20% of sales.