Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.29+9.26%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On October 28, 2026, Meritage Homes Corporation (the "Company") announced in a press release information concerning its results for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release, including information concerning forward-looking statements and factors that may affect the Company's future results, is attached as Exhibit 99.1. This press release is being furnished, not filed, under
Why it matters: More incentives helped win orders but also lowered order prices and margins. Less use with stronger orders would support a better sales mix.
Supportive ifQ4 orders rise from a year ago, along with order prices. Management reports using fewer incentives.
Worry ifQ4 orders fall year over year and management reports higher incentive use or rate buy-down costs.
Why it matters: Meritage aimed for 5% to 10% community growth in 2026. More communities can support future sales, even as land spending falls.
Worry ifYear-end community count is less than 5% above the 2025 year-end count.
Less concerning ifYear-end community count is at least 5% above the 2025 year-end count.
Why it matters: Q3 orders fell 15% as buyers faced high rates and tight budgets. A deeper drop would point to weaker demand.
Worry ifQ4 home orders are down more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 home orders are flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: In Q2, Meritage guided to home closings and revenue around 5% below 2025. Q3 revenue fell 17%, so the final result tests that outlook.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 home closing volume or revenue is more than 5% below 2025.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 home closing volume and revenue are each no more than 5% below 2025.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $366 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,208 loss on $10,000 · 32.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted margin was 17.9%, down from 20.1% a year ago. A lower margin would show that lot and buyer costs still outweigh savings.
Worry ifAdjusted home closing gross margin is below 18% in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifAdjusted home closing gross margin reaches 20% or more in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Meritage cut land spending and kept $677 million in cash in Q3. A sharp rise in spending with less cash would weaken its liquidity buffer.
Worry ifQuarterly land spending tops $500 million, while cash at quarter-end drops below $600 million.
Less concerning ifQuarterly land spending stays at or below $329 million, or cash stays at or above $677 million.