Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
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Put MTH beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain gross margin near 19.5%: Gross margin: 17.35%.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskMTH's community growth plan has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue fell 17% year over year in the latest quarter. The company missed its earnings estimate by 5.9%. It trades at 16x earnings versus a 16x peer median. The price is roughly in line with our growth forecast. Gross margin sits at 17.35% versus a 19.5% target. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 29%. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. MTH is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering MTH (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MTH in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Homebuilding — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MTH next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Grow community count while moderating land investment
Land spending below $1.5B alongside planned community growth supports disciplined expansion.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $73.29
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $73.29.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Balance home closing volume and revenue with market conditions
Reported earnings miss amid slowing housing demand challenges the objective of balancing closings and revenue with market conditions.

Threatens: Maintain revenue consistent with 2025
Lower outlook may hinder revenue consistency with 2025.
Threatens: Maintain home closing volume and revenue near 2025 levels
Soft demand may hinder home closing volume and revenue.
Threatens: Balance sheet preservation
Weak ROIC may impact balance sheet preservation efforts.