Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$10.05 → $10.11 · observed estimates
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$233.13-1.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.05 → 10.11 EPS · FY ending Oct 3, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS meets or exceeds $1.34 next quarter | It aims for $331M-$339M revenue next quarter. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.31 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $1.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.34. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 20261.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp
$10.05 → $10.11 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented technology business with improving execution, rather than a proven profit compounder: the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent revenue growth and three consecutive earnings beats, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
MTSI is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive, though it is judged justified by the evidence rather than unusually fragile. The market appears to be allowing for continued growth, but the snapshot does not specify exact expectations; the key gap is whether execution can keep supporting that premium.
Near term, management is on track with its goals: revenue grew year over year, adjusted gross margin improved, and guidance calls for further growth and margin progress in fiscal Q4 2026. The risk of a near-term miss is assessed as low, but recent industry misses and MTSI’s history of a deep miss make guidance execution important; the adjusted earnings outlook also needs to be delivered.
The multi-year view depends on MTSI sustaining revenue growth while maintaining margins and meeting its earnings goals. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the case, while easier interest rates or stabilization among major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop; these are possible tailwinds, not company-specific proof.
Over the next one to three years, improving execution keeps the long-term thesis intact, but expensive valuation, loss-making earnings quality, and elevated risk make delivery central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MACOM Technology Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is 59.0%-60.0%. |
| Broken |
| Gross margin falls below 56% next quarter |
Gross margin: 20.54% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 59.0%-60.0%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 14, 202520.538679 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $331M-$339M next quarter | It aims for $331M-$339M revenue next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $331M next quarter | Revenue: $342.237M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $331M-$339M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 2026342,237,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.09B → $2.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.05 | $2,092,783,332 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.05 | $2,092,787,300 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.05 | $2,092,787,300 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.05 | $2,092,787,300 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.04 | $2,086,462,543 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.04 | $2,086,462,543 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.04 | $2,086,462,543 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.04 | $2,086,462,543 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.04 | $2,086,462,543 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.11 | $2,091,904,724 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.