MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$268.95+3.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Gross margin maintains 59.0%-60.0%: GM 58.3% vs 59.0%-60.0% target; Q4 guide 60.0%-61.0%.
MACOM is growing revenue fast, up 22.5% last quarter. It aims for $331M-$339M revenue next quarter. Profit margins are improving toward 59%-60%. Long-term supply deals add stability.
The stock is down 25.6% from its high and trades at a high PE of 95. Margins are below target at 56.9%. Growth may slow if demand weakens or competition rises.
The price is about 34% above our fair value near $230, reflecting strong growth expectations. Analysts expect 37% revenue growth, which is optimistic versus our model.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.31 next quarter
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 56% next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is cautious, given the elevated risks and the recent shift in confidence from high to medium.
The market appears to be pricing in a high level of fragility due to MTSI's expensive valuation and weak execution quality. Expectations may be unjustified, as the stock is trading at a premium compared to its peers.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and margin targets, with recent financial performance showing a neutral trend. However, there is a low probability of missing guidance, which could impact sentiment given the company's history of misses.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to meet revenue and earnings targets, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Any cuts in guidance could lead to a significant negative reaction.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a revenue increase to $331M-$339M next quarter. Strong Q3 results and raised guidance reinforce this positive outlook. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
MACOM aims to maintain its gross margin within the range of 59.0% to 60.0%.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $331M next quarter
MACOM aims to increase its revenue to a range of $331 million to $339 million in the upcoming quarter.
In the next 1 to 3 years, MTSI's performance will depend on its execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.