MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$190.35-18.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 85.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 50 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTSI — director transition
Dated 2026-01-12
Director — Bryan Ingram: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: MACOM guided to $415 million to $425 million. Revenue below that range would break its recent growth run.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 revenue is below $415 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q4 revenue is at least $415 million and no more than $425 million.
Why it matters: MACOM set a $1.97 to $2.03 adjusted EPS range. A lower result would miss that goal.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 adjusted EPS is below $1.97 per diluted share.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q4 adjusted EPS is at least $1.97 per diluted share and no more than $2.03.
Why it matters: MACOM named its IQE investment as a way to strengthen supply and support growth. A clear update can show whether the investment is helping.
Supportive ifMACOM reports a clear supply or revenue gain from its IQE investment.
Worry ifMACOM reports a delay, added cost, or no progress on benefits from the IQE investment.
Why it matters: MACOM has focused on keeping adjusted gross margin near 60%. A result below 60% would miss its stated range.
Worry ifFiscal Q4 adjusted gross margin is below 60.0%.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q4 adjusted gross margin is between 60.0% and 61.0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$331 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $728 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,354 loss on $10,000 · 53.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its growth trend has eased. Revenue growth above MACOM's latest 35.8% rate would show continued strength.
Supportive ifOn November 5, reported revenue is up more than 35.8% year over year.
Worry ifOn November 5, reported revenue is up 35.8% or less year over year.