MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$268.95+3.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 71.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 38.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTSI — director transition
Dated 2026-01-12
Director — Bryan Ingram: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Missing earnings again may show problems. It could mean issues with MACOM's business.
Worry ifEarnings meet or exceed expectations in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings did not meet expectations again.
Why it matters: This comparison shows if MACOM's growth is continuing. A strong growth rate indicates solid demand.
Watch forQ3 2026 revenue grows more than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forQ3 2026 revenue grows less than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows MACOM's growth momentum is strong. It confirms management's outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $331 million to $339 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $331 million.
Why it matters: If growth drops below the median, it may mean a slowdown in the semiconductor sector. This could affect MACOM.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$300 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $690 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,417 loss on $10,000 · 44.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings per share in this range shows strong profits. This supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share reported between $1.31 and $1.37.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted earnings per share falls below $1.31.
Why it matters: Maintaining this margin range shows MACOM is managing costs well while growing revenue.
Supportive ifGross margin reported within the range of 59.0% to 60.0%.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 59.0%.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows MACOM's growth strategy is working well. It confirms strong demand for their products.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reported within the range of $415 million to $425 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $415 million.
Why it matters: A stable margin means MACOM is managing costs while growing. This helps keep profits strong.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin is between 60.0% and 61.0%.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 60.0%.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target indicates strong earnings growth. It reflects effective cost management and revenue growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported between $1.97 and $2.03.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS falls below $1.97.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows MACOM is doing its job well. This shows strong demand.
Watch forFiscal Q4 revenue reported within the guidance range of $415M-$425M.
Also watch forFiscal Q4 revenue reported below the guidance range.