Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) (MTW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.67-6.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.92 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex between $45M and $50M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex <= $50 million. | Intact | Capex exceeds $50 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $14.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex <= $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202614,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an industrial growth and execution story, not a low-risk or deep-value case. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent results supporting management’s direction, but sector headwinds and elevated risk keep the picture mixed.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium reflected in the evidence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the business can deliver; valuation also rose recently.
Near term, revenue growth and an 85.9% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA support management’s 2026 goals, and the company raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance while maintaining revenue guidance. Guidance delivery is on track overall, though capex remains a watch item and recent earnings results have been uneven. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the risk of a guidance reversal would also challenge management credibility.
The multi-year view depends on MTW maintaining its 2026 guidance and continuing to improve adjusted EBITDA without losing capex discipline. Near term, results from industrial bellwethers such as GEV, PH, and EMR could signal whether sector momentum is helping or fading. A guidance cut after the recent increase would be a meaningful negative scenario.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MTW’s thesis rests on continued execution against higher guidance, with an expensive valuation and sector risks limiting the margin for error. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets EPS between $0.45 and $0.90. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.45. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow between $40M and $65M in 2026 | Free cash flow should be $40M to $65M. | Intact | FCF falls below $40 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-6.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $40 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026-6,100,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at least $3 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3,000 million. | Improving | revenue falls below $2.17 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $613.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3,000 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026613,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $0.83 · observed estimates
$2.27B → $2.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.91 | $2,267,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $2,267,066,200 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.92 | $2,353,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.92 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.83 | $2,353,742,870 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.