Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) (MTW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.41+4.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions On May 5, 2026, the Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Growth in non-new machine sales helps the CRANES+50 plan and brings in regular money.
Supportive ifNon-new machine sales grew more than 5% from last year in Q2.
Worry ifNon-new machine sales grew less than 2% from last year in Q2.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Manitowoc can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. Financial metrics are getting worse.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows better use of money and profits. This can attract investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted ROIC reported at or above 15% for Q2 or Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted ROIC reported below 10% for Q2 or Q3.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Manitowoc's performance. This will show if the sector is recovering.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target would support Manitowoc's full-year revenue guidance of $2.25B to $2.35B.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $550 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $500 million.
Why it matters: Going over this order level shows high demand. It also supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifOrders for Q3 reported above $700 million.
Worry ifOrders for Q3 reported below $700 million.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings results will clarify if the previous miss was a trend or an outlier.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth or beats expectations.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows another miss or further revenue decline.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good performance. It also backs the higher yearly guidance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $150 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows the company is on track with its revenue targets.
Supportive ifNet sales for Q3 reported between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion.
Worry ifNet sales for Q3 reported below $2.3 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this spending plan shows smart use of money. It helps growth plans.
Supportive ifCapital spending was $45 million or more.
Worry ifCapital spending was less than $45 million.
Why it matters: A strong backlog shows good demand and chances for more money.
Supportive ifBacklog reported at or above $900 million in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog reported below $850 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is doing and how the company is operating.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat what analysts expected.
Also watch forQ2 earnings fall short of what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong profits and good operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches $150 million or more in 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA will be less than $150 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Net sales growth is key to maintaining momentum. A drop below 10% could signal weakness.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth below 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth at or above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows strong demand. It also confirms management's growth plan.
Supportive ifCompany maintains full-year 2026 net sales guidance of $2.3 to $2.4 billion.
Worry ifGuidance is below $2.3 billion. This means weaker demand or problems with execution.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow and financial health. This supports future investments.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reaches or exceeds $50 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow drops below $50 million. This shows cash generation problems.
Why it matters: Staying in this capex range shows careful spending. This helps growth and efficiency.
Watch forCapex for 2026 stays within the $45 million to $50 million range.
Also watch forCapex exceeds $50 million. This may mean overspending or bad management.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,614 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.