Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) (MTW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.20-2.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions On May 5, 2026, the Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Management kept its cash goal, but working capital and plant spending can affect cash results. Q3 cash flow is a key test.
Supportive ifFull-year adjusted free cash flow reaches at least $50M, while capital spending stays within $45M–$50M.
Worry ifManagement cuts the $50M cash floor, or full-year adjusted free cash flow falls below $50M.
Why it matters: Backlog reached $1.05B after Q2 orders jumped 56.1%. New orders test whether demand can keep the backlog high.
Supportive ifQ3 orders are higher than sales. Reported quarter-end backlog remains above $1.0B.
Worry ifQ3 orders fall below sales and quarter-end backlog drops below $939.9M, its Q1 level.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 10.3%, and management raised its full-year sales range. Q3 sales test whether that pace can continue.
Supportive ifOn the November 3 call, management keeps full-year sales guidance at $2.3B–$2.4B and Q3 sales support that range.
Worry ifManagement cuts the $2.3B sales floor, or Q3 sales fall year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 85.9%, and management raised its full-year range. The result tests whether that gain lasts.
Supportive ifManagement keeps the $150M–$170M range, including the $16M tariff refund benefit. Q3 adjusted EBITDA supports it.
Worry ifManagement cuts the range, or results show the $16M refund is not received or does not aid earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $447 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,614 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.