Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-03 · fmp
$199.85 → $211.13 · observed estimates
Micron Technology (MU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$795.23-7.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
207.75 → 211.13 EPS · FY ending Sep 3, 2028 · 30 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 30; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve and grow earnings per share (EPS) with strong profitability | EPS grew from $1.68 to $24.67, showing strong profitability. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $19 in 2026-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-03 · fmp
$199.85 → $211.13 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 16, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical memory-chip business with strong growth tied to AI and data center demand. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has recently shifted from favorable to mildly favorable, and risk remains high.
The evidence describes MU as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in assessment and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is medium, so the valuation reading is not certain.
Near-term results have been strong, with recent earnings beats and management on track against its priorities for revenue growth, margins, and earnings per share. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut on the next call; peer misses and a deep miss in MU’s recent history also warrant attention.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on AI and data center demand continuing to support growth and high margins. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1 to 3 year view, MU’s strong operating results support an intact thesis, but its high risk and dependence on demand and guidance leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Micron Technology's published investment case. The stated target is >= 86% gross margin. |
| Under Pressure |
| gross margin falls below 80% in 2026-Q4 |
Gross margin: 86.76% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= 86% gross margin. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 9, 202686.756164 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are increasing our investments in technology, products and manufacturing to help drive SI forward with our customers, and our Strategic Customer Agreements provide added confidence in the durability of Micron’s financial performance.”” “We believe our multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements will significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron’s strong financial performance.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Drive record revenue growth through AI and data center demand | Micron is growing revenue fast, driven by AI and data center demand. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $33B in 2026-Q4 | Revenue: $54.229B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $50B revenue. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Oct 9, 202654,229,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers’ platforms.” ““Micron is investing at record levels in technology, products and supply to address our customers’ rapidly growing demand.” Revenue was $41.456 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$310.61B → $325.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $199.85 | $310,614,363,042 | 22 / 32 |
| 2026-10-02 | $205.26 | $317,895,990,186 | 19 / 27 |
| 2026-10-03 | $205.34 | $319,044,868,475 | 19 / 27 |
| 2026-10-04 | $205.34 | $319,044,868,475 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-10-05 | $207.75 | $324,744,568,617 | 20 / 28 |
| 2026-10-06 | $207.75 | $324,744,568,617 | 20 / 28 |
| 2026-10-07 | $208.11 | $325,388,528,396 | 21 / 29 |
| 2026-10-08 | $208.11 | $325,388,528,396 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-10-09 | $208.11 | $325,388,531,858 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-10-10 | $208.11 | $325,388,531,858 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-10-11 | $208.83 | $326,385,454,935 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-10-12 | $208.63 | $326,322,918,561 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-10-13 | $208.63 | $323,852,016,753 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-14 | $208.63 | $324,207,706,830 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-15 | $208.63 | $324,207,706,830 | 23 / 31 |
| 2026-10-16 | $210.13 | $324,757,078,259 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-17 | $210.13 | $324,757,078,259 | 23 / 30 |
| 2026-10-18 | $210.13 | $324,757,078,259 | 23 / 31 |
| 2026-10-19 | $210.13 | $324,757,078,259 | 23 / 31 |
| 2026-10-20 | $210.25 | $325,206,402,020 | 23 / 31 |
| 2026-10-21 | $210.25 | $325,206,402,020 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-22 | $210.25 | $325,206,402,020 | 29 / 42 |
| 2026-10-23 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 29 / 42 |
| 2026-10-24 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 29 / 42 |
| 2026-10-25 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-26 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-27 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-28 | $210.25 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-29 | $210.88 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 43 |
| 2026-10-30 | $210.88 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 42 |
| 2026-10-31 | $210.88 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 42 |
| 2026-11-01 | $210.88 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 42 |
| 2026-11-02 | $210.88 | $325,206,239,229 | 30 / 42 |
| 2026-11-03 | $211.13 | $325,681,999,694 | 30 / 42 |
| 2026-11-04 | $211.13 | $325,681,999,694 | 30 / 42 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 45 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.