Micron Technology (MU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1016.59+6.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain and improve gross margin around 80-86%: 84.6% vs 86% target.
Micron is growing revenue fast, driven by AI and data center demand. Revenue rose from $8.05B in 2025-Q2 to $41.46B in 2026-Q3. Profit margins improved sharply to about 85%, with guidance for 86%. EPS grew from $1.68 to $24.67, showing strong profitability.
The recent sharp selloff and guidance cut show risks to growth. Memory market volatility and AI demand uncertainty could hurt revenue and margins. If growth slows below expectations, the stock may fall further.
The price is about 5% below our fair value near $996, reflecting roughly 100% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus more optimistic views.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $19 in 2026-Q4
Focus on increasing EPS through revenue growth, margin expansion, and operational efficiency.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on AI and data center demand. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and management priorities.
The market seems to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for continued strong performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track to achieve record revenue growth and improve gross margins. The low probability of missing earnings expectations adds to the stability of the outlook.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM, and how management navigates any guidance changes. A cut in guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Micron reported a strong earnings beat. It also announced a $250 million investment in AI memory technologies. However, competition from peers like Samsung poses a threat. This mixed outlook reflects both growth opportunities and competitive pressures.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS growth has been emphasized in 6 quarters from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q3. Diluted EPS increased from $1.68 in 2025-Q3 to $24.67 in 2026-Q3, with guidance for $30.73 in 2026-Q4. This reflects strong profitability growth consistent with management's stated priority.
“Diluted EPS $24.67 in Q3 2026, up from $12.07 prior quarter and $1.68 year ago.”
“Diluted EPS $12.07 in Q2 2026, up from $4.60 prior quarter.”
“Diluted EPS $4.60 in Q1 2026, up from $1.68 prior quarter.”
“Diluted EPS $2.83 in Q4 2025, up from $1.68 in Q3 2025.”
“Diluted EPS $1.68 in Q3 2025, up from $1.41 prior quarter.”
“Diluted EPS $1.41 in Q2 2025, up from $1.67 prior quarter.”
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 80% in 2026-Q4
Sustain gross margin levels near 80-86% through operational excellence and product mix improvements.
Management stated gross margin improvement as a priority in 6 quarters from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q3. Gross margin rose substantially from 37.7% in 2025-Q3 to 84.6% in 2026-Q3, with guidance for 86% in 2026-Q4. The trajectory shows strong delivery on margin improvement consistent with management's stated goal.
“Gross margin 84.6% in Q3 2026, up from 74.4% prior quarter and 37.7% year ago.”
“Gross margin approximately 67-68% in Q2 2026, guidance for Q3 was 81%.”
“Gross margin 56.0% in Q1 2026, up from 44.7% prior quarter.”
“Gross margin 44.7% in Q4 2025, up from 37.7% in Q3 2025.”
“Gross margin 37.7% in Q3 2025, up from 26.9% year ago.”
“Gross margin 36.8% in Q2 2025, up from 18.5% year ago.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $33B in 2026-Q4
Focus on leveraging AI and data center demand to achieve record revenue growth across business units and product lines.
Stated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q3. Revenue grew from $8.05 billion in 2025-Q2 to $41.46 billion in 2026-Q3, driven by strong AI and data center demand. Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year in 2026-Q3. Management consistently emphasized AI-driven growth and strategic customer agreements, and the financials show delivering on this priority.
“Micron's record fiscal Q3 financial results and even stronger outlook reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era.”
“Our Q2 outlook reflects substantial records across revenue, gross margin, EPS and free cash flow.”
“Micron delivered record revenue and significant margin expansion at the company level and in each business unit.”
“Micron closed out a record-breaking fiscal year with exceptional Q4 performance, underscoring leadership in technology and operational execution.”
“Micron delivered record revenue in fiscal Q3, driven by all-time-high DRAM revenue including nearly 50% sequential growth in HBM revenue.”
“Micron delivered fiscal Q2 EPS above guidance and data center revenue tripled from a year ago.”
Overall, the outlook for Micron Technology remains positive over the next 1 to 3 years, but it is essential to monitor key sector developments and management decisions. Not investment advice.