Micron Technology (MU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$656.39-17.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 150.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers
MU — officer change
Dated 2026-11-05
Director — Linnie M. Haynesworth: The filing discloses a director's planned retirement and non-nomination for re-election, which is a routine board succession event rather than a sudden executive departure.
Why it matters: Micron says HBM4E volume production is due in calendar 2027. Meeting that timing would support its next product step.
Supportive ifMicron reports HBM4E volume production has started in calendar 2027.
Worry ifMicron moves HBM4E volume production beyond calendar 2027.
Why it matters: Micron says these deals add confidence in future results. More disclosed customer commitments would support that claim.
Supportive ifMicron names a new deal with a key customer or reports more demand under signed contracts.
Worry ifMicron reports that a key customer deal was canceled, cut back, or delayed.
Why it matters: Micron guided to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion. Results near or above that range would support its AI demand story.
Supportive ifFiscal Q1 2027 revenue is at least $60 billion.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 2027 revenue is below $60 billion.
Why it matters: Micron guided to gross margin near 86%. A sharp drop would break its recent margin trend.
Worry ifFiscal Q1 2027 gross margin is below 84%.
Less concerning ifFiscal Q1 2027 gross margin is 84% or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$274 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $727 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,591 loss on $10,000 · 45.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.