Micron Technology (MU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1016.59+6.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 77.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 72 industry peers
MU — debt issuance
Dated 2026-04-01
Other Events. On March 31, 2026, Micron Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of its cash tender offers for any and all of its outstanding 5.300% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”), 5.650% Senior Notes due 2032 (the “2032 Notes”), 5.875% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033A Notes”), 5.875% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033B Notes”), 5.800% Senior Notes due 2035 (the “2035A Notes”), and 6.050% Senior Notes due 2035 (the “2023B Notes”, and, together wi…
Why it matters: New AI memory products can improve Micron's market position. They can also increase revenue.
Supportive ifNews about new AI memory products or partnerships.
Worry ifNo news on new AI memory products or partnerships.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 80% in Q4 results.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 86% as guided.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin guidance at or above 86% confirms strong pricing and cost control.
Worry ifGuidance below 84% would show possible pricing pressure.
Why it matters: Her skills may affect Micron's plans and new ideas in AI and chips.
Watch forGood plans were shared after she was appointed.
Also watch forNo big changes or plans were shared after her appointment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$404 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $726 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,910 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance may show less profit. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifEPS guidance below $29.73, which is $1 less than current guidance.
Less concerning ifEPS guidance remains at or above $30.73.
Why it matters: More spending could show strong growth and tech leadership.
Supportive ifSpending above $7 billion shows strong investment in growth.
Worry ifSpending below $6 billion would suggest less investment.
Why it matters: News about this investment shows a focus on growth. It also highlights new ideas in semiconductors.
Watch forLook for news on specific projects or timelines for the $200 billion investment.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the investment timeline.
Why it matters: If shipments go well, it will prove Micron is a leader in memory technology.
Supportive ifHBM4E begins volume production as scheduled in 2027.
Worry ifVolume production of HBM4E is delayed beyond 2027.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports ongoing investments and financial health.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow was over $25 billion.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was under $20 billion.
Why it matters: Dr. Björlin's expertise could influence Micron's direction in AI and cloud technologies.
Watch forNew plans announced that use Dr. Björlin's skills.
Also watch forNo new plans or unclear direction after her appointment.
Why it matters: Dr. Björlin's expertise could influence Micron's focus on AI and cloud strategies.
Watch forNew plans were announced that focus on AI and cloud infrastructure.
Also watch forNo new plans or strategies were announced for AI and cloud.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth could signal a slowdown in the tech sector affecting Micron.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows good earnings growth. It also shows the company is efficient.
Supportive ifEPS reported at or above $18.90 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifEPS reported below $15.00 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance would confirm strong demand in AI and data centers.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue guidance is confirmed at $50 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ4 revenue guidance is lowered below $49 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and strong pricing power.
Supportive ifQ4 gross margin reported at or above 86%.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin reported below 84%.
Why it matters: Progress on this investment could help Micron make more products. It may improve their market position.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress on the $200 billion investment plan.
Worry ifNo updates or delays have been announced about the investment plan.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company strategy and how it performs.
Watch forThey announced more leadership changes that support the AI strategy.
Also watch forNo new leaders have been announced. This shows that the strategy is stable.