Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Murphy USA (MUSA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$514.53+2.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
30.92 → 30.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MUSA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.63 | Dividend per share increased from $0.53 to $0.63, showing strong shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.63 | Dividend per share: $0.65 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.63 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.65 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused retailer whose multi-year view depends in part on opening new stores and improving merchandise contribution. The thesis is intact, but management execution is mixed and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: MUSA is described as cheap versus peers, while its peer premium is near parity and the expectations gap is modest. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, with an earnings beat and a sharp improvement in company momentum; the thesis has also seen a muted price reaction. Store growth is progressing, but Q3 merchandise contribution declined from a year earlier, and guidance cuts remain a key risk to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on MUSA sustaining performance without cutting guidance and on merchandise contribution improving after its latest decline. Over the multi-year view, new-store execution matters, while results from major consumer-sector companies could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MUSA’s long-term thesis is intact but not free of execution risk: store growth supports the case, while merchandise contribution and guidance are key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “If we assume second half all-in fuel margins average 35 cents per gallon, versus 37.9 cents per gallon in the first half, we expect the business to deliver Net Income of approximately $636 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.25 billion.”” ““Fourth quarter results were strong across the board, underscoring the strength of our operating model, our continued focus on efficiency and execution against our organic growth goals for the year,” said President and CEO Mindy West.”
Cash from operating activities improves to support growth | Cash from operating activities rose from $185M to $320M in recent quarters. | Broken | Quarterly cash from operations falls below $320M | Cash from operations: $348.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $320M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026348,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Murphy USA's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 34.83% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202634.827789 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026 | Murphy USA plans to open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026. | Intact | New store openings fall below 45 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.68 → $30.35 · observed estimates
$21.50B → $23.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $29.68 | $21,503,605,761 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $29.68 | $21,503,605,761 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $29.76 | $21,502,048,200 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $29.76 | $21,502,048,200 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $29.76 | $21,502,048,200 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $29.76 | $21,502,048,200 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $29.76 | $21,502,048,200 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $29.89 | $21,336,875,470 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $30.05 | $21,336,967,979 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $30.18 | $21,283,439,110 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $30.18 | $21,283,439,110 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $30.18 | $21,283,439,110 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.18 | $21,283,439,110 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.31 | $21,283,531,615 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $29.70 | $21,144,582,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.28 | $21,332,204,342 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $30.91 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $30.92 | $21,736,600,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $30.92 | $21,751,327,455 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $30.94 | $21,841,746,996 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $30.91 | $21,837,837,905 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $30.91 | $21,837,837,905 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $30.73 | $21,852,019,723 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $30.73 | $21,852,019,723 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $30.73 | $21,852,019,723 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $30.73 | $21,852,019,723 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $30.73 | $21,852,019,723 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $30.68 | $22,060,928,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $30.68 | $22,060,928,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $30.68 | $22,060,928,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $30.68 | $22,060,928,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $30.68 | $22,060,928,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $30.41 | $22,357,528,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $30.52 | $22,605,028,814 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $30.56 | $23,153,146,996 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $30.35 | $23,894,834,716 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.