Murphy USA (MUSA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$514.53+2.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MUSA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MUSA — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-22
Regulation FD Disclosure On October 22, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. issued a news release announcing a dividend declaration which included a rate increase from the previous quarter. The full text of this news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Q3 merchandise contribution fell 2.8% as margins narrowed. A recovery would show that the Q3 drop did not persist.
Supportive ifQ4 merchandise contribution is above the Q4 2025 level.
Worry ifQ4 merchandise contribution falls below the Q4 2025 level. Unit margins fall below 20.3%.
Why it matters: The new rate is an 11% increase from Q3. Payment on the stated date would continue the company's dividend growth.
Supportive ifMUSA pays $0.72 per share on December 1, 2026, as announced.
Worry ifMUSA delays, cuts, or cancels the $0.72 per share payment.
Why it matters: New stores are a stated growth priority. MUSA had 53 stores under construction at Q3 end.
Supportive ifMUSA reports 45 to 55 new stores for full-year 2026.
Worry ifMUSA reports fewer than 45 new stores for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher fuel prices drove most of Q3's store cost increase through payment fees. Continued cost pressure could offset fuel gains.
Worry ifStore and other operating expenses rise year over year. Same-store costs also rise, excluding payment fees and rent.
Less concerning ifSame-store operating costs, excluding payment fees and rent, stay flat or fall year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $369 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,972 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Fuel margins drove much of 2026's profit growth. A weak Q4 could put the full-year profit guide at risk.
Worry ifQ4 total fuel contribution is below 35 cents per gallon.
Less concerning ifQ4 total fuel contribution is 35 cents per gallon or higher.