Murphy USA (MUSA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$511.33-2.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MUSA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MUSA — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-02
Vice President & Controller — Anish K. Shah: The filing discloses the external hire of a new Vice President & Controller and Principal Accounting Officer, which is a significant management addition but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and a promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.64 per share in Q3.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in same-store sales growth could signal weakening demand for fuel and merchandise.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth for Q3 is reported below 0.5%.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales growth for Q3 exceeds 0.5%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a change in the consumer discretionary sector's growth phase.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the sector median.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifFuture announcements will say the dividend is more than $0.64 per share.
Worry ifDividend remains at or below $0.64 per share in future announcements.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $398 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,972 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows Murphy USA can make money for growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes up to more than $350 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls under $300 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Opening 45 to 55 new stores is key to Murphy USA's growth strategy for 2026.
Supportive ifManagement reports opening 30 or more new stores by Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 30 new stores opened by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow may mean less efficiency in operations.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow was below $200 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating cash flow remains above $200 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below this margin, fuel profits may weaken. This could hurt overall earnings.
Worry ifIn Q3, the retail fuel margin was below 35 cpg.
Less concerning ifRetail fuel contribution margin remains at or above 35 cpg.
Why it matters: Closing this offering will help Murphy USA manage its debt and finance growth plans.
Supportive ifThe successful closing of the notes offering on May 27, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key for growth. Meeting this goal shows strong execution of the growth strategy.
Supportive ifMurphy USA opens 45 or more new stores by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 45 new stores are opened by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The recent increase in dividends shows the company cares about its shareholders. This may help boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifInvestor feelings improve. This is shown by the rise in stock price after the dividend announcement.
Worry ifInvestor feelings go down. This happens even with the dividend increase, and the stock price falls.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to growth. It shows the company is expanding and gaining market share.
Supportive ifManagement says 45 to 55 new stores will open by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 45 for the full year.
Why it matters: Fuel margins are key for making money. Higher margins show strong pricing power and demand.
Supportive ifQ3 fuel contribution margins exceed 35 cents per gallon.
Worry ifQ3 fuel contribution margins drop below 30 cents per gallon.
Why it matters: Rising dividends show strong cash flow. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new increase in the dividend per share.
Worry ifManagement holds or cuts the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows strong operations. It also helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $320 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $235 million in Q3.