Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Mueller Water Products (MWA)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.63+2.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.59 → 1.57 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MWA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share remains at $0.07 | The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.07 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.07 | Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.07 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MWA is an industrial business with a value-oriented thesis, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. The thesis is currently intact, and its signal recently improved from mildly favorable to favorable, though management execution remains mixed.
The evidence describes MWA as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.11 and medium model confidence. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not indicate that the thesis depends on unusually fragile market expectations.
Near term, recent results show sales and adjusted EBITDA margin above the prior-year quarter, alongside higher operating income and lower SG&A expenses. Management has also increased capital spending to support capacity, but the industrial sector is a headwind and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; near-term miss risk is rated low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued sales growth, margin expansion, and productive capacity investment. Sector bellwethers’ earnings and guidance are important signals: continued strength could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MWA’s long-term thesis rests on sustaining recent operating gains despite a challenging sector backdrop. It remains intact, but future guidance and peer results are key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose from $69.9M to $80.4M in one year. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $69.9M in Q2 FY26 |
Operating income: $80.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $80.4M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202680,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $1.48B in FY26 | A primary condition in Mueller Water Products's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.48B. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.41B in FY26 | Revenue: $395.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.48B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026395,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.59 → $1.57 · observed estimates
$1.52B → $1.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.59 | $1,524,555,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.58 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.58 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.58 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.57 | $1,524,239,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.