Mueller Water Products (MWA)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.95+0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MWA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MWA — President transition
Dated 2026-06-18
Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer — Todd P. Helms: Mr. Helms is departing the company and will provide transition services as a senior advisor until September 30, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A costs may show inefficiencies and pressure on margins.
Worry ifSG&A expenses exceed $247 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses remain below $243 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or stays flat year over year.
Why it matters: If operating income grows less than this, it may show problems with managing costs.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 15% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth exceeds 15% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Trends in operating income margin will show how well costs are managed.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is over 20.4% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 19.0% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well a company runs its operations. A drop may mean higher costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is under 27.1% in Q4.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 28.0% in Q4.
Why it matters: Exceeding this amount shows strong cash generation and good financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $110 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $100 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is the lower end of the company's guidance. Falling below it may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth below 2.8% compared to the prior year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth above 3.5% compared to the prior year.
Why it matters: If net sales keep growing, it shows the company can handle market challenges.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net sales growth exceeds 3.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net sales growth falls below 2.8% year over year.
Why it matters: If they exceed this guidance, it shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 is over $372 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 is below $367 million.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends builds investor trust. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Watch forA dividend increase or steady payments will be announced.
Also watch forA dividend cut or suspension will be announced.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is key for overall revenue. It indicates demand for infrastructure products.
Supportive ifWater Management Solutions revenue grows year over year by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifWater Management Solutions revenue falls year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track to increase revenue growth. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: If it rises above this level, it shows good cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $85M in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income is $85M or lower in Q3.
Why it matters: The industrials sector is changing. This could affect Mueller's growth and performance.
Watch forSector growth speeds up to over 6% year over year.
Also watch forSector growth slows further below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may indicate aggressive growth plans. If it exceeds guidance, it could signal confidence in future demand.
Supportive ifCapital spending is over $65 million in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is under $60 million in fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this dividend shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. It shows they are stable with their money.
Supportive ifDividend payments remain at $0.07 per share in Q3.
Worry ifDividend payments drop below $0.07 per share in Q3.
Why it matters: Exceeding this level shows strong cash flow and good financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow as a percentage of adjusted net income exceeds 70%.
Worry ifFree cash flow as a percentage of adjusted net income falls below 70%.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $239 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,239 loss on $10,000 · 22.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.