Mueller Water Products (MWA)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.04+1.99%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MWA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MWA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Mueller Water Products, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its results of operations for the quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing und…
Why it matters: Mueller raised its 2026 EBITDA range to $367 million–$372 million. Meeting it would extend its margin gains.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $367 million, the low end of the latest range.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is less than $367 million.
Why it matters: Cash flow fell in the first half as spending on plants rose. Meeting the full-year target would show cash generation caught up.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow is more than 70% of adjusted net income.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow is 70% or less of adjusted net income.
Why it matters: The company named Morgan to lead finance during a planned change. A smooth handoff would support steady planning and reporting.
Supportive ifMorgan takes the CFO role on or about November 19. This is after the 2026 annual report is filed.
Worry ifThe CFO handoff is delayed, or the company reports a problem with the transition.
Why it matters: Water Flow Solutions sales fell 0.6% in Q3 as volumes declined. A return to growth would ease that concern.
Supportive ifWater Flow Solutions net sales rise year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifWater Flow Solutions net sales fall year over year again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,006 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.