Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Navient (NAVI)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.82-2.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.97 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NAVI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital allocation with debt issuance of at least $500M in 2026-Q1 | These show progress in cost control and capital allocation. | Intact | no significant capital allocation or debt issuance in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector business with a mixed, execution-dependent multi-year view, not a clear durable-growth story in the supplied evidence. The thesis state is watch, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.
NAVI is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also records a 28% premium versus peers; these measures point in different directions, so the valuation picture is not clear. The expectations gap is small at 0.03, and priced-in fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Recent financial performance is weak and sits well below the industry cohort, despite a reported earnings beat in August. Revenue rose from $682 million in the second quarter to $695 million in the first quarter, but the supplied evidence does not establish substantive delivery on loan growth, product expansion, or the planned reorganization. Near term, erratic earnings surprises and a stated risk of guidance cuts remain concerns.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether management can turn its priorities on loan growth, product expansion, and capital allocation into measurable results. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; the supplied outlook also flags rate cuts as a sector risk.
Over the next one to three years, NAVI’s long-term thesis depends on improved execution and financial performance, with elevated risk and limited evidence of progress on key priorities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Navient is improving its profits with operating income up to $32M in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $20M in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $573M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=32 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026573,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income rises to at least $17M in 2026-Q1 | Net income rose to $17M from a loss last year. | Intact | net income falls below $5M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $15M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=17 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202615,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline moderates above -65% in 2026 | A primary condition in Navient's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline better than -65% YoY. | Intact | revenue decline worse than -70% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -14.34% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline better than -65% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-14.340589 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.94 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.94 | $630,110,090 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.94 | $629,110,090 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.94 | $629,110,090 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.95 | $606,750,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.95 | $606,750,000 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.94 | $683,037,094 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.95 | $653,650,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.97 | $647,400,273 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.97 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.96 | $647,389,373 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.97 | $634,587,898 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.99 | $640,466,148 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.99 | $643,870,198 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $643,870,198 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.