Noodles & Co (NDLS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.32-0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Noodles & Company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $490 million. Free cash flow is expected to improve to around $35 million. Gross margin guidance was also raised to about 16.25%. Leadership changes may improve operations.
The company is still loss-making with negative EPS expected in 2026. Recent sharp stock selloff and guidance cut show risks. Litigation and regulatory issues add uncertainty.
The market expects about 2% revenue decline and negative EPS in 2026. Our fair value is near $80, reflecting these challenges. The stock price is down 18% from highs, pricing in ongoing losses and risks.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance reflecting strong margin improvements and operational leverage.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. NDLS has shown some positive momentum but remains loss-making and faces high risks in the near term.
The market currently reflects a low expectations gap, indicating that NDLS is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, the fundamentals suggest that the company is still under pressure, which may not be fully accounted for.
Management has set priorities to increase revenue and improve margins, which shows some commitment to growth. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and there is a notable risk of missing future guidance.
The long-term thesis hinges on NDLS maintaining its revenue and margin guidance while navigating external pressures like inflation and sector performance. The performance of larger Consumer Discretionary peers could also impact NDLS's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company increased revenue guidance for 2026, which supports growth. However, it confirmed more closures in 2026, which challenges its growth objectives.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $32.5-$37.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $34-$38 million in 2026-Q2. Actual Adjusted EBITDA increased 79% year-over-year to $10.8 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows strong margin improvement and operational leverage delivering on guidance.
“We have raised our fiscal 2026 guidance for... Adjusted EBITDA of $34 million to $38 million.”
“We are raising its... Adjusted EBITDA of $32.5 million to $37.5 million.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $32.5 million in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 15.5% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $483 million in FY26
Raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance reflecting strong comparable restaurant sales growth and system-wide sales momentum.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was raised from $483-$498 million in 2026-Q1 to $485-$500 million in 2026-Q2, with comparable restaurant sales growth guidance increasing to 8.0%-11.0%. Actual revenue grew slightly from $123.8M in 2026-Q1 to $127.0M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and upward guidance.
“We have raised our fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue... Total revenue of $485 million to $500 million.”
“We are raising its revenue... Total revenue of $483 million to $498 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, NDLS must demonstrate consistent execution against its growth plans while managing external risks. Not investment advice.