Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
Noodles & Co (NDLS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.05-3.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.46 → 0.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NDLS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA improves to at least $30 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Noodles & Co's published investment case. The stated target is >=30 million USD. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $32.5-$37.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $34-$38 million in 2026-Q2. Actual Adjusted EBITDA increased 79% year-over-year to $10.8 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows strong margin improvement and operational leverage delivering on guidance. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk restaurant recovery and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is improving as management raises 2026 guidance, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: NDLS screens cheap versus peers, while a separate measure shows an 18% premium to peers. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in tag is justified with no flagged fragility; the expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear discount based on low expectations.
Near term, revenue and margin progress is supported by higher 2026 guidance, rising quarterly revenue, and a 79% year-over-year increase in second-quarter adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit before certain costs. Recent earnings beats and higher company momentum are constructive, but losses, erratic earnings surprises, and a 43% estimated miss probability leave execution risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on NDLS sustaining sales growth and margin improvement while delivering on its raised guidance. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while continued strength or weakness among restaurant bellwethers could change the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NDLS has measurable operating progress but still needs to prove that it can turn that progress into a more reliable financial record. The long-term thesis remains watchful and hinges on sustained execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow improves to at least $32.5 million in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected to improve to around $35 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $32.5 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $1.796M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=32.5 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 24, 20261,796,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin improves to at least 15.5% in 2026 | Gross margin guidance was also raised to about 16.25%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 15.5% in FY26 | Gross margin: 38.66% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 24, 202638.662752 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $483 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Noodles & Co's published investment case. The stated target is >=483 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $483 million in FY26 | Revenue: $127.037M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=483 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 24, 2026127,037,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was raised from $483-$498 million in 2026-Q1 to $485-$500 million in 2026-Q2, with comparable restaurant sales growth guidance increasing to 8.0%-11.0%. Actual revenue grew slightly from $123.8M in 2026-Q1 to $127.0M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and upward guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 22, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.37 → $0.46 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.37 | $480,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.46 | $484,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.