Noodles & Co (NDLS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.32-0.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NDLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 66.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
NDLS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-25
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 25, 2026, Noodles & Company (the "Company") issued a press release disclosing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 30, 2025, and that as previously announced, its management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on March 25, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein…
Why it matters: A rise in gross margin guidance shows better profit potential. It may mean operational gains.
Supportive ifGross margin guidance rises above 17.0% for 2026.
Worry ifGross margin guidance stays at 15.5%-17.0% or decreases.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery from loss-making status.
Watch forEarnings report shows a positive EBITDA margin or revenue growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses or revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance shows management's commitment to growth. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance to over $498M for 2026.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at $483M-$498M or decreases.
Why it matters: Sustaining over 10% growth shows strong customer demand and successful strategies. This supports ongoing revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ3 restaurant sales growth was over 10%.
Worry ifQ3 restaurant sales growth was under 8%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$345 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $762 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,032 loss on $10,000 · 50.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A margin above 16% shows good cost management. It also means better profits.
Supportive ifRestaurant contribution margin was 16% or more for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifThe restaurant's contribution margin was less than 15.5% in fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A higher margin means better cost control and profit. This helps growth plans.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the restaurant contribution margin was over 17%.
Worry ifIn Q3, the restaurant contribution margin was below 16%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on revenue, EBITDA, and margins. It can influence investor sentiment.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth. It also shows positive Adjusted EBITDA.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue. It also shows negative Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: A strong EBITDA shows better operations and higher margins. It also backs the new guidance for the year.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $10 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $9 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows management is on track. It also shows strong operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is $38 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $34 million.