Noodles & Co (NDLS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.05-3.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NDLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 16 industry peers
NDLS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-25
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 25, 2026, Noodles & Company (the "Company") issued a press release disclosing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 30, 2025, and that as previously announced, its management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on March 25, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein…
Why it matters: The review may lead to a debt refinancing, a sale, or a change in ownership. The debt comes due on July 27, 2027.
Watch forA company filing or release names a refinancing plan, sale, or other deal with clear terms.
Also watch forThe company says the review ended with no deal, or reports no refinancing plan as the July 27, 2027 debt date nears.
Why it matters: Q2 sales rose 10.3%, and Q3 sales were up about 10% so far. A strong full quarter would extend this trend.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 13 report, Q3 comparable sales are up at least 8% year over year.
Worry ifIn the Nov. 13 report, Q3 comparable sales are below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: The company had $105.4 million of debt and only $1.3 million in cash at Q2 end. Meeting this goal would show that sales gains are helping pay down debt.
Supportive ifThe year-end report shows debt at or below three times 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifThe year-end report shows debt above three times 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$293 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $751 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,032 loss on $10,000 · 50.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.