Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC (NHP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.21-3.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.07 → 0.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NHP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Narrow net loss towards zero | A primary condition in NATIONAL HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES INC's published investment case. The stated target is net loss > -$4.3 million. | Broken | net loss worsens beyond -$4.3 million next quarter | Net income: $-5.386M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss > -$4.3 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-5,386,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NHP is a real estate growth and balance-sheet improvement story, not yet a steady earnings compounder, since it remains loss-making and management execution is rated volatile. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent results have not kept pace with the industry cohort, and confidence in the evidence has fallen to medium.
NHP is tagged as stretched and trades at a 2.89 premium versus peers, while the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is modest at 0.2, so the evidence points to a valuation that already reflects positive expectations without a clear sign of concentrated fragility.
Near-term, SHOP same-store cash NOI growth has been strong: second-quarter growth was 20.1% year over year, above the revised 15% to 18% target for 2026. Leverage also fell from 9.2x to 4.9x over the year, though management raised its expense guidance and both priorities remain rated mixed. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but a recent deep miss and the sector’s high miss rate remain reasons for care.
The multi-year thesis depends on NHP sustaining SHOP growth, continuing to reduce leverage, and managing expenses while maintaining execution credibility. Near-term, cutting guidance after a recent increase would weaken confidence; Federal Reserve rate cuts could support real estate, while signs of trouble at sector peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NHP has evidence of operating growth and balance-sheet progress, but loss-making results, volatile management execution, and stretched valuation leave the thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain positive operating income above $10M |
| NHP aims to improve profitability with operating income rising from -$6.6M to $10.1M in early 2026. |
| Broken |
| operating income falls below $10 million next quarter |
Operating income: $5.086M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.1 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20265,086,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Same-store cash NOI growth of 13% to 16% | The company targets 13% to 16% growth in same-store cash NOI for 2026. | Intact | same-store cash NOI growth falls below 13% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.04 → $0.09 · observed estimates
$0.41B → $0.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.04 | $414,706,860 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.04 | $417,053,020 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.07 | $417,053,025 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $425,364,256 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.03 | $418,223,090 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.03 | $418,223,090 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.03 | $418,223,090 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.03 | $418,506,423 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.03 | $418,531,918 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.07 | $411,541,929 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.07 | $394,191,215 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.07 | $399,919,786 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.07 | $399,919,786 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.07 | $399,919,786 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.07 | $399,919,786 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.07 | $397,755,077 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.07 | $389,198,192 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.09 | $401,718,317 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.