NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.50. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16, NHP's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 46× p/ffo (3.4× the 14× p/ffo peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~37% near-term growth vs our ~13% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $11 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $15–$20. Note: our $11 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($15–$20). Not investment advice.
$15.00 – $20.00 (median $17.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 37% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 13% growth — ahead of our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $17.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $5.65 | 18.0 | 0.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M | $4.62 | 13.8 | 0.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $74.40 | 6.2 | 12.07 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $108.10 | 6.2 | 17.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $137.93 | 6.2 | 22.38 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
