NiSource (NI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.39-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
NiSource is a large regulated gas utility with steady earnings. It raised 2026 EPS guidance to about $2.04 per share. The company grew revenue 8% year over year in Q1 2026. Regulatory approvals support its growth plans in Indiana.
Analysts expect revenue to fall about 25% next year. Profit growth may slow with soft guidance. Rising costs or regulation could hurt earnings.
The price is about 7% above our fair value near $44. Analysts expect a 25% revenue drop, which we view as too pessimistic.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.02 in FY26
Maintain and reaffirm 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $2.02 to $2.07 per share.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. NiSource has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07. The company reported non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.22 for the first six months of 2026, supporting confidence in achieving the full-year guidance. The trajectory is delivering as management maintains this guidance across quarters.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a utility company with a focus on capital investment and strategic growth. The current state reflects mixed execution and a sector that is experiencing headwinds.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. NI is considered expensive compared to peers, with an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully reflect the challenges ahead.
Management has reaffirmed its earnings guidance, but the recent financial performance has shown a notable decline in momentum. There is a low probability of missing guidance, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds some risk.
Key factors include the potential for NI to cut guidance, which could negatively impact sentiment. Additionally, movements in interest rates and performance of sector peers will be crucial for future momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07, supporting growth expectations. However, it also faced a recent earnings miss and a class action lawsuit related to power outages, which could impact operations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07”
“NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07”
“NiSource is reaffirming 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance”
“In 2026, non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.02-$2.07.”
Breaks if: Loss of key regulatory approvals for growth projects
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NI's performance will depend on management's ability to execute its strategies amid a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.