NI
NiSourceNYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NI has a mixed signal label with a composite score of 5.0 and a medium confidence level of 72.3. The score is influenced by various factors, including unfavorable scenarios such as a potential guidance cut and reversals in macroeconomic conditions related to rates and labor. The sector trend is currently weak, contributing to the overall moderate risk label, while valuation is assessed as full at 42.4. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.21
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.23 (-1.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07growthbehind0% progress
5/6: “NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. NiSource has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07. The financials show a net income of $198.5M in 2025-Q4, indicating stable performance. The trajectory is delivering on the reaffirmed guidance.
- 2.Announce $28B capex plan through 2030capital allocationwatchprovisional
10/29: “Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of $28.0 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. NiSource announced a $28B capex plan through 2030. The financials show operating income of $311.7M in 2025-Q4, supporting the capital allocation strategy. The trajectory is in early stages with limited progress visible.
- 3.Maintain dividend per share at $0.28capital allocationwatchprovisional
10/29: “Dividend per share was $0.28 in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. NiSource maintained its dividend per share at $0.28 in 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3. The financials show stable net income, with $198.5M in 2025-Q4, supporting the dividend policy. The trajectory is consistent with management's commitment.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 16%; 252d 18%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −9%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.03 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 70/100, drawdown 82/100, beta 3/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07
GrowthNew since 2026-05-06NiSource continues to reaffirm its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. NiSource has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07. The financials show a net income of $198.5M in 2025-Q4, indicating stable performance. The trajectory is delivering on the reaffirmed guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-06Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“NiSource is reaffirming its 2026 non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“In 2026, non-GAAP consolidated adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.02-$2.07.”
- #2
Announce $28B capex plan through 2030
Capital allocationNiSource has announced a consolidated capital expenditure plan of $28 billion through 2030.
WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. NiSource announced a $28B capex plan through 2030. The financials show operating income of $311.7M in 2025-Q4, supporting the capital allocation strategy. The trajectory is in early stages with limited progress visible.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of $28.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of $28.0 billion.”
- #3
Maintain dividend per share at $0.28
Capital allocationNiSource has maintained its dividend per share at $0.28 in recent quarters.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. NiSource maintained its dividend per share at $0.28 in 2025-Q2 and 2025-Q3. The financials show stable net income, with $198.5M in 2025-Q4, supporting the dividend policy. The trajectory is consistent with management's commitment.
Dividend per share maintained at $0.28No scoreCEO/CFO:“Dividend per share was $0.28 in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-29Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-29provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Dividend per share was $0.28.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Dividend per share was $0.28.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
47 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NI NiSource | +5.0 | full | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-06)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-063d agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 6, 2026, NiSource Inc. (the “Company”) reported its financial results for the period ended March 31, 2026. The Company’s press release, dated May 6, 2026, is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
earnings preannouncement—score 62
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.