NiSource (NI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$41.39-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -28.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-05-18
Other Events. Senior Notes Due 2031 and 2036 On May 11, 2026, NiSource Inc. (the “Company”) and BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc. and U.S. Bancorp Investments, Inc., as Lead Underwriters, entered into a Terms Agreement (the “Terms Agreement”) with respect to the offering and sale of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 4.750% Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.300…
Why it matters: The earnings report will share details. It will cover financial performance and updates.
Watch forEarnings report shows results that exceed EPS guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows results that fall below EPS guidance.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.28 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut or lowered from $0.28 per share.
Why it matters: Information on debt issuance shows financial health and future plans.
Watch forSuccessful issuance of debt with favorable terms.
Also watch forDebt issuance faces strong pushback from investors or bad terms.
Why it matters: Changes in this guidance show shifts in growth expectations. Keeping or raising guidance shows confidence.
Watch forManagement raises the EPS CAGR guidance above 9%-10%.
Also watch forManagement lowers the EPS CAGR guidance below 9%.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects how much NiSource pays to borrow money.
Watch forThe FOMC raises interest rates, leading to higher borrowing costs for NiSource.
Also watch forThe FOMC keeps interest rates the same. This means borrowing costs will stay stable.
Why it matters: This shows earnings are slowing down. It may hurt investor confidence in growth.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EPS was below $0.16. This shows weaker performance.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EPS was above $0.16. This shows earnings are still strong.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is crucial for supporting future growth and rate base expansion.
Supportive ifManagement says they hit goals in the $28 billion investment plan.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or budget cuts to the investment plan.
Why it matters: These deals help save customers money and support growth plans.
Supportive ifNew news about the data center plan will help customers save money.
Worry ifNo new updates or bad news about the data center deals.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows management thinks they can meet growth goals.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms the 2026 EPS guidance during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 EPS guidance to below $2.02.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $197 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,734 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.