Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
National Bankshares, Inc. (NKSH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.41-2.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.86 → 3.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NKSH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $0.78 in FY26 | Earnings per share are guided at $0.78 for 2026. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.78 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.86 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.78 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20260.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank investment with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or durable growth story. The signal has improved to mildly favorable, but recent results keep the thesis in a watch state.
Valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is nearly neutral and the pricing assessment is described as justified. Recent valuation rose sharply, but the evidence does not show that the market is pricing in unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and recent performance below the industry cohort are key concerns, despite a low estimated miss risk. Net interest margin improved 21 basis points quarter over quarter and 49 basis points year over year, and nine-month net income was higher than in 2025. Evidence of market-share gains is limited, and management’s progress across its stated priorities remains mixed.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether margin improvement continues through repricing and securities optimization, and whether customer and market-share growth becomes measurable. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts could weigh on the bank and its sector. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, NKSH’s thesis rests on turning recent margin and earnings improvement into consistent execution, while addressing repeated misses and below-cohort performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in National Bankshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Recognize ~$6.57 million pre-tax gain in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Gain not realized or materially less than $6.57 million |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Renewal and execution of stock repurchase plan | The company renewed its stock buyback plan to repurchase up to 250,000 shares. | Intact | Buyback authorization lapses or repurchases cease | Buyback renewed for 250k shares (Jun 2026-May 2027) May 13, 2026 press release announced renewal of stock repurchase plan for up to 250,000 shares. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.35 → $3.86 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.35 | $65,540,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.35 | $65,540,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.35 | $65,540,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.35 | $65,540,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.35 | $65,540,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.86 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.86 | $70,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.