National Bankshares, Inc. (NKSH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.07+0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NKSH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NKSH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, National Bankshares, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the period ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as an exhibit to this report and is incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Hitting or beating earnings expectations can help stock performance. It can also improve investor mood.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $0.79, showing strong performance.
Worry ifIn Q3, earnings per share are below $0.79. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: The changes aim to increase profit and interest income soon.
Watch forAnnual interest income goes up by at least $4.25 million after the changes.
Also watch forInterest income does not go up or falls in the next quarters.
Why it matters: More loans from new markets can raise total revenue and profit.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLoan growth is less than 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth phase is slowing. A drop in revenue growth could impact National Bankshares.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,344 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing and what management thinks about the future.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth exceeds 50% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income growth below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can maintain its growth trajectory. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Watch forQ2 net income increases compared to Q1 results.
Also watch forQ2 net income decreases compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: Increased deposits in new markets show successful expansion efforts. This can drive future growth.
Supportive ifDeposits from new markets increase by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifDeposits from new markets grow less than 5% in Q3, indicating weak expansion.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company cares about giving back to shareholders. This can change how stockholders feel.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.75 per share is made as scheduled.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: Earnings growth will show if the company can sustain its momentum. This affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $5.03 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $5.03 million.
Why it matters: Changes in noninterest income can show how well fee strategies work.
Watch forNoninterest income increases by over 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNoninterest income decreases or stays flat year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining earnings growth is crucial for investor confidence. A decline in earnings could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is reported above $5 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 is reported below $4.5 million.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality shows careful lending and lowers the risk of losses.
Supportive ifCharge-off rates remain below 0.5% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifCharge-off rates exceed 0.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and can help the stock price.
Supportive ifManagement announces the purchase of at least 100,000 shares under the buyback plan.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased under the buyback plan by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: This gain could help financial numbers and how investors see the company. It may be a one-time event.
Supportive ifThe company says the $6.57 million gain is shown in its financial statements.
Worry ifThe gain is not shown or reported in a way that was expected.
Why it matters: Expanding into new markets can increase revenue and profits.
Supportive ifIncrease in deposits by more than 5% in the new branch areas by Q4 2026.
Worry ifDeposits in new branch areas show no growth or decline by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Renewing the stock repurchase plan could signal confidence in the company's value. It may also support share price.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished the stock buyback plan for 250,000 shares.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the stock repurchase plan progress.
Why it matters: A better net interest margin shows good control of deposit costs and earnings from assets.
Supportive ifNet interest margin improves above 2.98% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines or stays below 2.98% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More construction loans mean strong demand and good lending practices.
Supportive ifConstruction loans increase by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifConstruction loans decline or grow less than 5% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates and affect net interest margins.
Watch forFOMC decision leads to a decrease in deposit costs, improving margins.
Also watch forFOMC decision leads to an increase in deposit costs, compressing margins.