Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.81-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Annaly pays a strong dividend of $0.7 per share. Net income rose to $282.7M in Q1 2026. Operating income improved to $289.0M in the same quarter. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 7.66 versus peers at 9.56.
Revenue is expected to decline about 45% next year. Free cash flow yield is negative. Profit growth is uneven and may not sustain. Dividend cuts could pressure the stock.
The price is about 21% below our fair value near $29. Analysts expect revenue to fall 45% next year. Our view is more optimistic on earnings and dividend stability.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.7 in any quarter
Breaks if: net income falls below $282.7M in any quarter
Focus on improving GAAP net income through portfolio management and operational efficiency.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP net income rose significantly from $60 million in 2025-Q2 to $827.8 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating strong improvement in portfolio performance and operational results. Management is delivering on increasing net income as stated.
“GAAP net income of $827.8 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.”
“GAAP net income of $290.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”
“GAAP net income of $60.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.”
Breaks if: operating income falls below $289.0M in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, but management remains stable and committed to key priorities.
The market seems to reflect a cheap valuation compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the potential risks associated with NLY's recent performance.
Management is focused on maintaining and growing a diversified investment portfolio, which has shown some progress. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and while the miss probability is low, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like STWD, BXMT, and EFC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for NLY, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
In the next 1 to 3 years, NLY's performance will depend on sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.