Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$18.85-0.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.13 → 3.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NLY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.7 | Annaly pays a strong dividend of $0.7 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.7 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.75 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.7 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20260.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector investment tied to portfolio management, leverage, and interest-rate conditions. The current thesis is on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort, despite two recent earnings beats.
NLY is described as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low fragility in the priced-in assessment. That suggests limited evidence of excessive expectations, but the valuation model has only medium confidence and the broader value assessment is neutral.
Over the multi-year view, the reported investment portfolio has expanded, while residential mortgage loans have also grown; current-quarter detail on residential production and strategy allocations is limited. Near term, leverage rose in the latest quarter, and recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry, although management is still rated stable and the latest earnings event was positive.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while the evidence also flags pressure if the Fed begins cutting rates from the current level. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum, but NLY’s leverage trend and its relative operating performance remain important swing factors.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on portfolio growth and execution keeping pace with the risks from rising leverage, weak relative performance, and rate changes. The evidence supports a watch status, not a clear resolution of those tensions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose to $282.7M in Q1 2026. |
| Recovered |
| net income falls below $282.7M in any quarter |
Net income: $-1.002B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $282.7M net income per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026-1,001,759,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income at or above $289.0M quarterly | Operating income improved to $289.0M in the same quarter. | Intact | operating income falls below $289.0M in any quarter | Operating income: $663.502M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $289.0M operating income per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026663,502,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.98 → $3.12 · observed estimates
$2.78B → $2.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.98 | $2,781,748,250 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.06 | $2,475,987,750 | 12 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.10 | $2,829,796,139 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.10 | $2,829,796,139 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.06 | $2,475,987,750 | 12 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.10 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.10 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.12 | $2,843,667,442 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.11 | $2,392,511,000 | 13 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.12 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.13 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.13 | $2,872,353,725 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.12 | $2,848,191,991 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.13 | $2,917,075,113 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.13 | $2,917,075,113 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.13 | $2,917,075,113 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.13 | $2,917,075,113 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.13 | $2,836,525,325 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.13 | $2,836,525,325 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.14 | $2,842,358,658 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.14 | $2,842,358,658 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.14 | $2,842,358,658 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.14 | $2,842,358,658 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.14 | $2,847,096,491 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.12 | $2,879,544,860 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.12 | $2,879,544,860 | 7 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.