Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$18.85-0.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -54.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NLY — capital allocation — Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-10-02
Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth in
Why it matters: Annaly said higher long-term rates and rate swings hurt housing and rate-sensitive assets. The November CPI and PPI reports are near-term checks on that pressure.
Watch forAfter the November 10 CPI and November 13 PPI reports, 10-year Treasury yields fall. Annaly reports narrower Agency MBS spreads.
Also watch forAfter those reports, 10-year Treasury yields rise. Annaly reports wider Agency MBS spreads.
Why it matters: Book value fell from $20.15 to $17.86 in Q3. Another drop would show more loss of shareholder capital.
Worry ifQ4 book value per common share is below $17.86.
Less concerning ifQ4 book value per common share is at or above $17.86.
Why it matters: The spread excluding PAA fell from 1.50% to 1.42% in Q3. A further drop would point to tighter earnings from lending and funding.
Worry ifQ4 net interest spread excluding PAA is below 1.42%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net interest spread excluding PAA is at or above 1.42%.
Why it matters: Q3 EAD was $0.80 per share, above the $0.75 dividend. A drop below the dividend would weaken its earnings cover.
Worry ifQ4 EAD falls below $0.75 per common share, or the declared common dividend is cut.
Less concerning ifQ4 EAD stays at or above $0.75 per share and the common dividend remains $0.75 or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $207 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,536 loss on $10,000 · 25.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.