Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.81-0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NLY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -47.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
NLY — debt issuance
Dated 2025-12-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 22, 2025, Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into separate Distribution Agency Agreements (collectively, the “Sales Agreements”) with each of Barclays Capital Inc., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., BTIG, LLC, Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Piper Sandler & Co., RBC Capital Markets, LLC, UBS…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Annaly meets its dividend and growth goals.
Supportive ifEarnings available for distribution (EAD) is more than $0.79 per common share.
Worry ifEAD falls below $0.79 per common share.
Why it matters: Lower costs can increase net interest income. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifThe average cost of interest-bearing debts is now below 4.29%.
Worry ifThe average cost of interest-bearing debts is now above 4.49%.
Why it matters: The recent increase in dividends signals strong performance. Future changes could indicate financial health.
Watch forManagement keeps or raises the quarterly dividend to more than $0.75 per share.
Also watch forManagement cuts the quarterly dividend to less than $0.75 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money skills and strong finances.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.70 for the next quarter.
Worry ifIf the dividend per share drops below $0.70, it may mean financial trouble.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,488 loss on $10,000 · 14.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher debt may mean more risk. This could hurt the company's finances.
Worry ifGAAP leverage reported above 7.4x.
Less concerning ifGAAP leverage reported at or below 7.4x.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs and revenues well. This can improve how the market sees it.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is higher than in the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 is lower than in the last quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if net income growth continues. This affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $282.7 million, showing continued growth.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 falls below $124.2 million, indicating a decline.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may signal a shift in the financial sector's growth phase. This could impact overall performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below its median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above its median for the sector.
Why it matters: A higher net income would indicate strong financial performance and support the stock price.
Supportive ifGAAP net income per average common share in Q3 exceeds $1.06.
Worry ifGAAP net income per average common share in Q3 is below $1.06.
Why it matters: More net income means the company is making more money. This can help investor feelings.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 is reported higher than the previous quarter.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is reported lower than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Less financing could cause money issues. This may hurt investments.
Worry ifTotal assets for financing drop below $9.6 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal assets for financing are at or above $9.6 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in this area shows strong demand and good management.
Supportive ifThe Residential Credit portfolio grew by more than 30% since last quarter.
Worry ifThe Residential Credit portfolio growth is below 30% since last quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings consistency is important for keeping investor trust. Meeting or beating this number shows good performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share reported at or above $0.33.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share falls below $0.33.
Why it matters: A decline in book value could signal asset quality issues or market pressures.
Worry ifBook value per common share reported below $20.15.
Less concerning ifBook value per common share reported at or above $20.15.
Why it matters: Earnings below $0.79 could hurt the company’s dividend plan.
Worry ifQ3 earnings are below $0.79 per common share.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings are at or above $0.79 per common share.