Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.93-2.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.67 → 0.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $100M share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Implement $100M share repurchase. | Intact | Repurchase program is cancelled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NP is a fast-growing financial business with a growth-and-profitability thesis, rather than a turnaround. The thesis is currently intact after a recent earnings beat, though quality and momentum measures have weakened and risk remains elevated.
NP is expensive versus peers, with a reported premium of 5.46 and a 0.29 expectations gap. The valuation signal is based on low model confidence, and the evidence does not show a broader stack of fragility beyond the expensive valuation.
Near term, results show strong execution: Q3 revenue rose 34% year over year, written premium grew 31%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 62%. Management has delivered on its growth and margin priorities across the supplied quarters, but a guidance cut is a meaningful risk; follow-through on the authorized share repurchase is not demonstrated.
The multi-year view hinges on NP sustaining revenue and premium growth while keeping margins near management’s stated goal. Near-term signals include the next guidance update, interest-rate direction, and earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers such as MRSH, AJG, and AON.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, strong operating results support an intact thesis, while expensive valuation, elevated risk, and weaker quality and momentum measures are important counterweights. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins should stay near 60.5%. |
| Intact |
| Profit margin falls below 55% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 27% in FY26 | A primary condition in Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=27% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.65 → $0.68 · observed estimates
$0.23B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.65 | $230,894,270 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.66 | $237,258,538 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.65 | $230,894,270 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $237,258,538 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.67 | $237,186,820 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.67 | $237,906,820 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.67 | $237,906,820 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.67 | $238,861,930 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.67 | $237,876,720 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.67 | $239,275,740 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.67 | $239,275,740 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.67 | $239,965,740 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.67 | $239,965,740 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.67 | $239,965,740 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.67 | $239,114,310 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.67 | $239,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.67 | $239,777,946 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.67 | $239,850,673 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.67 | $240,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.67 | $240,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.67 | $240,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.67 | $240,741,583 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.67 | $238,459,764 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.67 | $240,689,946 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.68 | $241,801,731 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.68 | $241,801,731 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.68 | $241,992,640 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.68 | $241,992,640 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.68 | $241,992,640 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.68 | $241,992,640 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.68 | $242,429,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.68 | $242,629,003 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.68 | $242,629,003 | 11 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.