Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.23-0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 89.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
NP — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 21, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and an earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and the earning presentation are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth is key to reaching the full-year target of $186M to $189M.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is reported at or above 33% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 25% year over year.
Why it matters: A buyback shows that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThe company announces the repurchase of at least $10 million of shares within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks are planned or done in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This report will give updates on revenue, margins, and financial health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth of 30% or more year over year.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: When earnings are released can affect how investors feel and the stock's performance.
Watch forThe company will announce Q3 earnings on or before November 11, 2026.
Also watch forThe company will announce Q3 earnings after November 11, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $527 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,378 loss on $10,000 · 43.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the margin shows good efficiency and makes more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 60% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 57% in Q3.
Why it matters: The CPI affects inflation expectations. This can change insurance pricing and demand. Changes can impact Neptune's plans.
Watch forCPI rises a lot, suggesting costs are going up. This could change insurance pricing.
Also watch forCPI goes down or stays the same. This shows stable pricing conditions.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt Neptune's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The company aims for $186M to $189M in revenue for 2026. Meeting this shows strong growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $50 million or more, supporting the full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $45 million. This may show growth problems.