Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (NPB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.88-1.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.74 → 2.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NPB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share stays at $0.025 or higher | It maintains a steady dividend of $0.025 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.025 per share in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.025 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20260.025 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NPB is a financial-sector business with a mixed thesis, not a clear turnaround or a proven steady compounder. Over the next one to three years, its portfolio and deposit growth support the case, while volatile management execution and weaker quarterly profitability temper it.
The valuation evidence describes NPB as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap. At the same time, its priced-in tag is stretched, so the picture is mixed; the evidence does not show a concentrated fragility signal.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 45% estimated miss probability make the next results a risk to watch. In Q3, MPP, AIO, and total deposits grew, but net income and return on average equity fell from Q2. The mortgage refocus is underway, though its financial results are not yet established, and restructuring charges are expected mostly in Q4.
The near-term thesis weakens if NPB cuts guidance on its next call or if the Fed begins cutting rates, which the evidence says can weigh on financial-sector names. Sector support could continue if HDB, IBN, and USB keep reporting strong results and higher guidance. Over the multi-year view, the main test is whether portfolio growth and the mortgage changes translate into consistent profitability.
For the next one to three years, NPB has real growth in portfolios and deposits, but its mixed signal, declining Q3 profitability, and run of earnings misses leave the thesis dependent on better execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Northpointe keeps net income growing, reaching $22.15 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $20 million in 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $14.375M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=22.15 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 20, 202614,375,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income remains near $29.43 million | Operating income stays stable near $29.43 million. | Intact | operating income falls below $26 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $19.021M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=29 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 20, 202619,021,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.98 → $2.51 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.98 | $288,456,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.98 | $288,456,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.89 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.81 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.74 | $282,460,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.71 | $277,888,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.69 | $273,643,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.68 | $242,839,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.51 | $212,688,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.