Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (NPB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.14+2.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -44.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NPB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
and 7.01, including the information incorporated herein from Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Management says the refocus can improve costs and capital use. Lower expenses would show the plan is starting to pay off.
Supportive ifA later earnings report names savings from the exit. It shows non-interest expense below $36.1 million.
Worry ifA later earnings report shows non-interest expense at or above $36.1 million. It names no savings from the exit.
Why it matters: Northpointe plans to grow these loan books. Continued growth would support its stated focus, while a drop would mark a change.
Watch forIn a later quarter, both MPP and AIO balances rise from the prior quarter.
Also watch forIn a later quarter, either MPP or AIO balances fall from the prior quarter.
Why it matters: The sale would carry out Northpointe's plan to exit two mortgage channels. A signed deal would confirm progress on that plan.
Supportive ifNorthpointe and CMG sign a final sale agreement by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe parties end talks, or no final sale agreement is signed by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 net income fell to $13.9 million from $20.1 million a year earlier. Another low quarter would show that earnings remain under pressure.
Worry ifA later quarter reports net income below $20.1 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Less concerning ifA later quarter reports net income at or above $20.1 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $266 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,455 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Northpointe plans to book most exit costs in Q4. Charges above its estimate would raise the cost of leaving these channels.
Worry ifQ4 results show restructuring charges above $7 million. This is higher than the stated $6 million to $7 million range.
Less concerning ifQ4 charges are $7 million or less, within the stated range.