Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Net Power, Inc. (NPWR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.83-4.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NPWR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS improves toward break-even | A primary condition in Net Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -0.10 USD per share. | Improving | EPS remains below -0.10 USD per share in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative development story rather than an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has advanced the project, but the business remains loss-making and evidence is limited.
The evidence snapshot gives no valuation measure or direct estimate of market expectations, so whether NPWR is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The available evidence points to weak recent performance and losses, but does not show how much of that the market already assumes.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a high estimated chance of another miss point to continued earnings risk. Over the multi-year view, Project Permian has gained equipment and construction rights that could raise potential capacity to nearly 200 MW, but no revenue has been reported and operating losses persist.
The project’s progress depends on securing binding power offtake agreements, meaning commitments from customers to take the power, and arranging project financing before a final investment decision. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued strength from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker jobs data or lower guidance could add pressure to cyclical businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NPWR’s long-term thesis depends on converting Project Permian’s development progress into customer commitments, financing, and revenue. Losses, repeated earnings misses, and low confidence leave the evidence thin. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Net Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is FCF yield >= 0%. |
| Broken |
| FCF yield remains below 0% over next 4 quarters |
Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stock drawdown stabilizes and recovers | A supporting condition in Net Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Drawdown from high less than 20%. | Under Pressure | Drawdown worsens beyond 35% over next 6 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.25 → $-0.16 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $0 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.25 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.19 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.12 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.12 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.12 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.12 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.16 | $5,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.