Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$329.25-4.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.32 → 14.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NSC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective execution under new COO | New COO may improve operations. | Intact | Operational issues or strategy failures under new COO | EPS $3.62 vs est $3.47; Rev $3.5B vs est $3.48B NSC beat Q3 EPS and revenue estimates; Schneider named primary intermodal provider; no operational issues reported post-transition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NSC is a large railroad business with a multi-year view tied to revenue growth, productivity, and reliable service. Its thesis is intact and has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution is neutral and cost progress remains behind.
NSC is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is aligned with the valuation signal, while fragility is low; this suggests optimism is present without a concentrated fragility signal.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, with earnings beats in July and October and 3% year-over-year volume growth in the latest quarter. Over the multi-year view, revenue has risen across the cited quarters, but operating income has barely changed, so productivity and cost control remain unproven in the results. Near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though the industry has a high miss rate and NSC had a deep miss in its recent history.
The favorable case depends on sustained revenue growth and better conversion of that growth into operating income, alongside safe, reliable service. A guidance cut after the recent raise would weaken management credibility, while continued strength or weakness among UNP, CSX, and WAB could signal whether the sector backdrop is improving or fading.
For the 1-to-3-year view, NSC’s business thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent results, but stretched expectations make cost execution and guidance credibility important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The merger with Union Pacific could boost growth if approved. |
| Improving |
| Merger blocked or delayed beyond FY26 |
Qualitative progress vs FY26 target Union Pacific CEO made the case for the $85B merger in October 2026, signaling continued progress on regulatory approval. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margin near current levels (~25.9 P/E implies stable margins) | Profit margins stayed strong. | Broken | Profit margins fall significantly below current levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 2% next year | A primary condition in Norfolk Southern's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next year | Revenue growth: 13.63% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 202613.631969 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.10 → $14.52 · observed estimates
$13.64B → $14.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.10 | $13,641,660,071 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.16 | $13,684,303,260 | 22 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.16 | $13,684,303,260 | 22 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.22 | $13,704,869,930 | 22 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.22 | $13,704,869,930 | 22 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.26 | $13,732,192,570 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.26 | $13,732,192,570 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.26 | $13,732,192,570 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.30 | $13,788,341,840 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.30 | $13,801,021,870 | 22 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.29 | $13,752,074,241 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.33 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.35 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.34 | $13,824,727,394 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.34 | $13,826,671,839 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.34 | $13,826,671,839 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.34 | $13,826,671,839 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.34 | $13,826,671,839 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.34 | $13,826,671,839 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.35 | $13,844,338,505 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.35 | $13,849,176,158 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.35 | $13,849,176,158 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.32 | $13,870,342,824 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.32 | $13,870,342,824 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.32 | $13,870,342,824 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.30 | $13,884,636,931 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.30 | $13,900,585,870 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.32 | $13,919,715,383 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.32 | $13,919,715,383 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.32 | $13,919,715,383 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.34 | $13,936,368,343 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.34 | $13,936,368,343 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.34 | $13,947,868,343 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.34 | $13,947,868,343 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.34 | $13,947,868,343 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.34 | $13,960,676,177 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.34 | $13,960,676,177 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.34 | $13,960,676,177 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.34 | $13,960,676,177 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.34 | $13,960,676,177 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.35 | $13,982,502,649 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.35 | $13,982,502,649 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.42 | $14,097,326,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.47 | $14,165,806,487 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.47 | $14,165,806,487 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.47 | $14,165,806,487 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.47 | $14,165,806,487 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.52 | $14,183,633,587 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.52 | $14,183,633,587 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.52 | $14,183,633,587 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.52 | $14,183,632,576 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.52 | $14,183,632,576 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.52 | $14,183,632,576 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.52 | $14,183,632,576 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.52 | $14,183,632,576 | 13 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.