Norfolk Southern (NSC)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$329.46+0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
NSC — COO transition
Dated 2026-06-01
Chief Operating Officer — John Orr: John Orr resigned as COO due to a diminution of his duties and responsibilities, with Brian Barr appointed as the new COO.
Why it matters: Improving productivity savings is a key goal for Norfolk Southern. Progress here can boost profits.
Supportive ifManagement says productivity savings went up by at least 5% from last year.
Worry ifProductivity savings did not improve or got worse compared to last year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving its revenue and profits.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share are over $2.65. This shows better performance.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share drop below $2.43. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Falling revenue growth may show weak demand. This can hurt how the market sees the company.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 2% for full year 2025.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth exceeds 2% for full year 2025.
Why it matters: Exceeding the revenue growth guidance would show strong demand and effective execution. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 3% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 2% compared to the same quarter last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $201 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,247 loss on $10,000 · 12.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower operating ratio shows better cost control. This can improve profit margins.
Supportive ifThe operating ratio is below 65% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating ratio stays above 67% in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on the merger can affect growth and efficiency. Investors want to see success.
Watch forManagement shares good news on merger progress.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays in the merger.