Norfolk Southern (NSC)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$329.25-4.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NSC — COO transition
Dated 2026-06-01
Chief Operating Officer — John Orr: John Orr resigned as COO due to a diminution of his duties and responsibilities, with Brian Barr appointed as the new COO.
Why it matters: Industrial-sector signals point to a headwind and slower growth. A weak GDP report could add pressure to freight demand.
Worry ifThe November 25 second GDP estimate shows lower Q3 growth than its first estimate.
Less concerning ifThe second estimate shows Q3 growth unchanged or higher than its first estimate.
Why it matters: Q3 results included $70 million in merger costs and incident effects. New incident costs or claims could weigh on reported results.
Worry ifA later earnings release reports Eastern Ohio incident costs above the $70 million included in Q3. Or it reports a new major claim or proceeding.
Less concerning ifA later earnings release reports lower incident costs than in Q3. It reports no new major claim or proceeding.
Why it matters: Management named the combination as a priority, but the supplied results give no deal or integration update. A clear milestone would show progress.
Watch forNorfolk Southern reports a dated deal step. For example, it may report formal approval or name an integration milestone.
Also watch forNorfolk Southern reports a deal delay, a failed approval step, or an end to the combination plan.
Why it matters: Q3 volume rose 3% year over year as demand for rail service increased. More growth would support the demand story.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows rail volume growth above 0% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows rail volume down year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,247 loss on $10,000 · 12.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The adjusted ratio was 65.4% in Q3, 210 basis points worse year over year. A lower ratio would show better cost control.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, the adjusted operating ratio falls below 65.4%. It also improves from the same quarter last year.
Worry ifAdjusted operating ratio stays at or above 65.4% and remains worse year over year.