Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-24 · fmp
NetApp (NTAP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$187.67-1.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.10 → 11.16 EPS · FY ending Apr 24, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTAP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deliver EPS near $6.66 in FY27 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.66. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $6.0 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $1.88 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.66. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 20261.88 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-24 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-and-margin execution story in enterprise technology, rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact: revenue and margins have improved, but recent momentum has softened and the evidence carries medium confidence.
The valuation evidence points to NTAP being cheap versus peers, with the model describing expectations as justified and fragility as low. The expectations gap is modest, so the evidence does not suggest that a large amount of unusually strong execution is already assumed.
Over the multi-year view, continued AI and cloud expansion and margin discipline are management priorities, and recent results show progress on both. Near term, the miss risk is described as low, but a past deep miss and recent peer misses warrant attention; momentum has also fallen from 62.4 to 49.2.
The thesis depends on revenue growth and margins staying on track, and on management continuing its stated priorities, including capital returns. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or steadier results from sector peers could improve the technology backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NTAP’s long-term thesis rests on sustained AI and cloud growth, margin discipline, and execution through a weaker technology backdrop. Recent performance supports the thesis, while softer momentum and guidance execution remain key watch points. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~70%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 68% |
Gross margin: 78.01% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~70%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 202678.009896 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain operating margin near 24% in FY26 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is ~24%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 23% | Operating margin: 26.61% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~24%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 202626.608026 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near $7.55B in FY27 | A primary condition in NetApp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.55 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $7.0 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $1.819B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.55 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 20261,819,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.84 → $11.16 · observed estimates
$7.89B → $8.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.84 | $7,887,811,651 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.84 | $7,887,811,651 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.84 | $7,887,804,996 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.84 | $7,887,807,474 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.01 | $7,955,590,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.02 | $7,963,923,417 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.03 | $7,968,876,489 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.03 | $7,968,876,489 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.03 | $7,968,876,489 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.07 | $7,972,580,034 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.07 | $7,972,580,034 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.35 | $8,133,778,139 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.81 | $8,499,517,265 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.86 | $8,537,675,160 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.86 | $8,537,675,160 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.86 | $8,537,675,160 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.95 | $8,615,284,002 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.95 | $8,615,284,002 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.04 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.04 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.03 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.03 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.03 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.03 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.03 | $8,653,618,224 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.10 | $8,690,284,891 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.10 | $8,690,173,780 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.10 | $8,690,196,619 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.13 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.14 | $8,691,661,435 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.15 | $8,706,205,570 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.16 | $8,717,665,360 | 13 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.