NetApp (NTAP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.59+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTAP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTAP — Chair transition
Dated 2025-09-12
The filing details amendments to the Employee Stock Purchase Plan, Equity Incentive Plan, and changes to the Outside Director Compensation Policy.
Why it matters: New AI products may help future revenue growth and improve competitive position.
Supportive ifNew AI products or features will be announced during the earnings call on September 2, 2026.
Worry ifNo new AI product announcements during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Updates on the $1 billion buyback may show management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifA large share buyback shows a promise to return value.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the buyback plan suggest possible concerns.
Why it matters: Growth in billings shows how much future revenue and demand there will be for NetApp's services.
Supportive ifBillings reported to grow above 6% year-over-year for Q3 FY2026.
Worry ifBillings reported to grow below 6% year-over-year for Q3 FY2026.
Why it matters: A larger buyback shows management's confidence in the stock and its finances.
Supportive ifThey announced a buyback program worth over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or a reduction in the planned buyback.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,483 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for NetApp's future. Falling short signals trouble in meeting goals.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue may be less than $7.325B.
Less concerning ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $7.575B.
Why it matters: Earnings per share show how much money the company makes. A drop raises concerns.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.35.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share exceed $1.35.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show that management believes in the company's future.
Supportive ifMore share repurchase plans will be announced after the earnings call.
Worry ifNo news about share repurchases will come after the earnings call.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI solutions shows NetApp's market leadership and demand.
Supportive ifAI solution revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifAI solution revenue growth is less than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in NetApp's growth and affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating margins above this level mean NetApp is controlling costs. At the same time, it is growing revenues.
Supportive ifOperating margins were above 19.4% for Q1 FY2027.
Worry ifOperating margins were below 19.4% for Q1 FY2027.
Why it matters: Net revenues are crucial for growth. Falling below $1.750 billion indicates weak demand.
Worry ifNet revenues reported above $1.750 billion for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet revenues reported below $1.750 billion for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong adoption would signal success in AI solutions, a key growth area for NetApp.
Supportive ifMore customers are using the AI Data Engine. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifIf adoption metrics stay the same or drop, it suggests weak market interest.
Why it matters: Earnings per share above this level shows strong profits. It confirms management can keep earnings growing.
Supportive ifQ2 FY2027 earnings per share meets or exceeds $1.35.
Worry ifQ2 FY2027 earnings per share falls below $1.35.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if NetApp can keep its growth momentum. It is a key indicator of future performance.
Supportive ifQ2 FY27 revenue guidance falls within the range of $2.025 billion to $2.175 billion.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 revenue guidance is below $2.025 billion.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well NetApp manages costs. It also shows how they grow revenue.
Supportive ifOperating margin guidance for Q2 FY27 is between 24.9% and 25.9%.
Worry ifOperating margin guidance for Q2 FY27 is below 24.9%.
Why it matters: Public Cloud revenue growth is vital for NetApp's strategy in AI and cloud expansion.
Supportive ifPublic Cloud revenue grows year over year by more than 28%.
Worry ifPublic Cloud revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.