Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Navitas Semiconductor Corp. (NVTS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.86-15.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NVTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin near 39.25% in Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in Navitas Semiconductor Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 38.5% to 40.0%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 38.5% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin: -9.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 38.5% to 40.0%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Jul 27, 2026-9.507076 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth story, not an established compounder: the business is still loss-making, and management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is on watch after the signal shifted from mixed to cautious, despite progress on its strategic pivot and margins.
NVTS is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported by expectations for future growth from AI infrastructure and other high-power markets. The evidence suggests those expectations may be ahead of what current results support; confidence in the valuation model is low, and fragility is rated low because the concern is valuation alone rather than a wider combination of weaknesses.
Near-term results have been weak relative to industry peers, and the company remains loss-making, although recent revenue rose sequentially and high-power market revenue grew year over year. Gross margin has improved modestly, with further improvement guided for the next quarter, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk given peers' recent misses and NVTS's history of a deep miss.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued customer ramps in AI infrastructure and grid markets, sustained revenue growth, and further margin progress. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop; these broader factors do not resolve NVTS's execution risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NVTS offers a potentially meaningful growth opportunity, but its loss-making business, weak relative performance, and expensive valuation make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Navitas Semiconductor Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating loss less negative than -$27.8 million. |
| Intact |
| operating loss worsens beyond -$30 million next year |
Operating income: $-34.378M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: operating loss less negative than -$27.8 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026-34,378,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $10M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Navitas Semiconductor Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $10 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $9.5 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $13.991M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202613,991,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.14 → $-0.17 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.14 | $72,912,760 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.14 | $72,912,760 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.14 | $72,912,760 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.14 | $72,912,760 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.14 | $72,912,760 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.13 | $74,125,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.13 | $74,125,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.13 | $74,250,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.13 | $74,250,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.13 | $74,248,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.12 | $72,712,589 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.17 | $78,431,646 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.