Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.02+0.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.96 → 3.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NWE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt levels to avoid pressure on capital allocation | A supporting condition in NorthWestern Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in debt beyond recent $225M term loan. | Under Pressure | Significant new debt issuance or off-balance sheet obligations beyond recent levels | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NWE is a regulated utility with a multi-year growth thesis tied to capital investment and a planned merger. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though management and earnings quality are rated neutral.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says NWE is cheap versus peers, while the overall value assessment says expensive and the model shows a sizable premium to peers. The expectations gap is small, and pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, suggesting limited room for unmet expectations to be overlooked.
Near term, management has reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance, and second-quarter diluted EPS was higher than a year earlier. The capital plan is on track, while completing the Black Hills merger remains dependent on final regulatory approval in Montana; guidance cuts and recent peer misses are risks to monitor.
The multi-year view depends on NWE meeting its earnings guidance, delivering planned investment, and completing the merger by year-end 2026. In the near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while lower interest rates or continued strong results from large utility peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, NWE’s thesis rests on steady execution and merger completion, with valuation looking demanding despite a peer-relative valuation measure pointing the other way. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.67 in Q1 2026 |
| The company raised its dividend to $0.67 per share in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share fails to increase or declines in 2026-Q1 |
Dividend per share: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.67 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 29, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain 2026 EPS guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83 | NorthWestern Energy keeps its 2026 EPS guidance near $3.75 per share. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $3.68 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Affirming 2026 Guidance and Long-Term Growth Rates We are affirming our 2026 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $3.68 - $3.83 per diluted share.” “FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Affirming 2026 Guidance and Long-Term Growth Rates We are affirming our 2026 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $3.68 - $3.83 per diluted share.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 6% YoY | A supporting condition in NorthWestern Energy's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% over next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: 14.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 202614.556203 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.97 → $3.97 · observed estimates
$1.82B → $1.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.97 | $1,820,214,250 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.97 | $1,821,597,590 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.97 | $1,813,091,940 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.96 | $1,816,131,940 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.96 | $1,816,131,940 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.96 | $1,816,131,940 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.96 | $1,816,131,940 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.96 | $1,833,113,799 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.96 | $1,836,157,105 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.96 | $1,836,499,592 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.96 | $1,831,333,614 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.96 | $1,826,444,678 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.96 | $1,826,078,011 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.97 | $1,817,652,740 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.97 | $1,817,638,295 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.97 | $1,826,744,678 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.