NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.78-0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NWE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-22
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: The new credit agreement could affect cash flow and investment capacity. It is crucial for growth.
Watch forThere are signs of better cash flow. This follows the $225 million credit agreement.
Also watch forNegative cash flow reports or no new investments after the credit agreement.
Why it matters: This will give us insight into earnings and support management's guidance.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows diluted EPS within the guidance range of $3.68 to $3.83.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows diluted EPS below the guidance range.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows financial strength and a promise to give value to shareholders. It can raise investor trust.
Supportive ifNorthWestern announces an increase in the dividend per share from $0.67 to a higher amount.
Worry ifNorthWestern decides to maintain or cut the dividend per share.
Why it matters: The merger could improve NorthWestern's market position and financial results. Delays might hurt investor trust.
Watch forRegulatory approvals for the merger come on time. This lets the deal close as planned.
Also watch forRegulatory approvals are late or denied. This could delay or cancel the merger.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,131 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is key for long-term growth and rate base expansion.
Supportive ifManagement says there is good progress on the capital investment plan.
Worry ifManagement says there may be delays or cuts to the capital investment plan.
Why it matters: Montana is the last state needed for the merger with Black Hills. Approval is key to closing the deal.
Supportive ifThe Montana Public Service Commission approves the merger by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe Montana Public Service Commission denies or delays the merger past the end of 2026.
Why it matters: NorthWestern's earnings guidance shows it is serious about its financial goals. This helps investors see how it might do in the future.
Supportive ifNorthWestern confirms its non-GAAP EPS guidance remains at $3.68 to $3.83 per diluted share.
Worry ifNorthWestern revises its EPS guidance downward from the current range.
Why it matters: Changes in customer growth can show market demand and efficiency. It affects future revenue.
Watch forCustomer growth rates are higher than national averages. This shows strong demand.
Also watch forCustomer growth rates are lower than national averages. This may mean problems ahead.
Why it matters: Keeping the payout ratio between 60-70% shows financial health and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the dividend payout ratio is still between 60% and 70%.
Worry ifManagement announces a change to the dividend payout ratio outside the 60-70% range.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends reflects strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in the dividend per share beyond the current $0.67.
Worry ifManagement decides to keep the dividend per share the same or lower it.
Why it matters: When management confirms earnings guidance, it shows they believe in financial stability. This builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $3.68 to $3.83.
Worry ifManagement lowers or withdraws the 2026 EPS guidance.