NorthWestern Energy (NWE)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.00+2.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers
NWE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 4, 2026 , NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. d/b/a NorthWestern Energy (Nasdaq: NWE) (the “ Company ”), issued a press release (the “ Press Release ”) discussing financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and affirming earnings guidance for 2026 in the range of $3.68 to $3.83 per diluted share. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Re…
Why it matters: NWE now pays costs for its added Colstrip share, but base rates do not yet cover them. A recovery ruling could change how much falls on earnings.
Watch forThe commission grants final PCCAM relief that lets NWE recover costs tied to the added Colstrip share.
Also watch forThe commission denies final PCCAM relief. The added operating costs then lack this way to recover them.
Why it matters: The company affirmed a 2026 EPS range of $3.68 to $3.83. Results within that range would support its stated earnings path.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is at least $3.68 and no more than $3.83.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is below $3.68 or above $3.83.
Why it matters: NWE has development deals, but service agreements are still in progress. Signed deals would turn planned demand into a firm customer commitment.
Supportive ifNWE announces signed electric service agreements for the stated 150 MW of demand. The demand is planned to begin in late 2027.
Worry ifNWE reports no signed service agreements, or the planned 150 MW start is delayed or cut.
Why it matters: Montana is the last needed approval. A final order clears a key step toward closing the Black Hills merger.
Supportive ifThe Montana Public Service Commission approves the merger by December 31, 2026. No new terms block closing.
Worry ifThe commission denies approval, adds a term that blocks closing, or issues no order by December 31, 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,131 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.