Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NEXGEL INC (NXGL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.12+2.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXGL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise at least $1.21 million through private placements in 2026-Q1 | The company raised $1.21 million in capital in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Capital raised falls below $1.21 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth and integration story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: the Celularity portfolio is starting to contribute revenue, but rollout is slower than planned and recent performance is weak.
The valuation evidence is low confidence and gives no clear sign of a valuation cushion versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in label is justified and no fragility gates fired. This suggests the market setup is not flagged as unusually fragile, but the evidence does not establish that expectations are easy to meet.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after the recent miss, and the evidence points to weak financial performance. In Q2 2026, revenue was $3.69 million and the net loss was $2.87 million, including non-recurring costs; management says the portfolio rollout is slower than planned. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on integrating the portfolio and growing commercial activity, while financing needs and Nasdaq compliance remain important execution issues.
A next-call guidance cut would add to the negative case, while further weakening in the jobs report could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as ISRG, BDX, and RMD would support the healthcare backdrop, though it would not resolve NXGL’s company-specific execution risks. The main swing factors are the pace of BioNX integration, access to financing, and progress on Nasdaq compliance.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NXGL remains a high-risk, loss-making business with an early revenue contribution but weak results and an unproven integration ramp. The long-term thesis hinges on execution, financing, and compliance progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in NEXGEL INC's published investment case. The stated target is Resolve Nasdaq deficiency and maintain stable leadership. |
| Under Pressure |
| Nasdaq deficiency unresolved or key management resignations continue |
Nasdaq deficiency unresolved; 1 board resignation (Jul 2026); Interim CEO appointed (Aug 2026) Shareholders approved share increase (Sep 2026) complicating Nasdaq compliance. Scott Henry resigned (Jul 2026). Brian Kieser appointed Interim CEO (Aug 2026). Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 18% in FY26 | A primary condition in NEXGEL INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=17.6% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 17.6% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.40 → $-4.40 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.40 | $34,132,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.22 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.40 | $24,267,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.