NEXGEL INC (NXGL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.32-6.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXGL — CEO appointment
Dated 2026-08-21
CEO — Brian Kieser: The filing discloses the appointment of a sitting board member as Interim CEO, which is a succession event rather than a departure, though the interim nature suggests a recent or impending executive change.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategies. This could affect future capital allocation and performance.
Watch forGood financial results or higher income from the CFO's plans.
Also watch forOngoing losses or financial issues after the new CFO started.
Why it matters: The committee's findings will help future operations. They will also guide money strategies.
Watch forThe Special Committee will present a detailed plan in 45 days.
Also watch forNo plan is presented. This shows delays in planning.
Why it matters: Fixing the listing issue is important. It helps keep market access and investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company gets a note from Nasdaq. It shows they meet the $1.00 bid price rule.
Worry ifNasdaq sends a notice of delisting. This happens because of ongoing non-compliance.
Why it matters: The company raised $1.21M through a private placement. This capital is crucial for ongoing operations.
Watch forGood news on capital use that leads to better financial numbers.
Also watch forBad financial results or more money problems after the recent funding.
Why it matters: The company received a deficiency letter for not meeting the $1.00 minimum bid price. Resolving this is crucial for listing.
Worry ifThe company's closing bid price goes above $1.00 for 10 straight business days.
Less concerning ifThe closing bid price stays below $1.00 for a long time without change.
Why it matters: Growth in BioNX Surgical revenue will show if integration efforts are working. This is key for future sales.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from BioNX Surgical is over $1 million. This shows successful integration.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from BioNX Surgical is under $500,000. This shows ongoing integration issues.
Why it matters: Successful launch will validate the product's market potential and drive revenue growth. This is critical for the company's future.
Supportive ifSilverSeal makes strong sales in hospitals in the first quarter after launch.
Worry ifSales from SilverSeal in hospitals are lower than expected. This shows challenges in the market.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is on track to triple revenue as projected.
Watch forQ2 revenue is about $35 million. This shows the acquisition is working.
Also watch forQ2 revenue is below $20 million. This shows there are problems with integration and growth.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to triple annual revenue to about $35 million. This could show growth potential.
Supportive ifExpected revenue is about $35 million in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifExpected revenue is below $10 million. This shows the deal has little effect.
Why it matters: If integration is successful, NEXGEL could make much more money. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifNEXGEL says the integration of Celularity's products is going well. Revenue may rise by 20% next quarter.
Worry ifIf there are delays or revenue from Celularity's products grows less than 10%, it will be a problem.
Why it matters: Acquiring an exclusive license is a key growth priority. Progress could signal future revenue potential.
Supportive ifA press release says the exclusive license was acquired.
Worry ifNo news or issues about getting the exclusive license.
Why it matters: Approval is needed to fix the Nasdaq listing problem. This will help with liquidity.
Supportive ifShareholders agree to add more shares and reverse the stock split.
Worry ifShareholders reject both proposals again. This leads to more Nasdaq compliance issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$315 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $987 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,862 loss on $10,000 · 88.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.