NEXGEL INC (NXGL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.01-10.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXGL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 83.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 145.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
NXGL — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-10-07
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Supply limits have held back sales despite customer orders. A smaller backlog would show that supply is catching up.
Supportive ifNEXGEL reports a BioNX Surgical backlog below $795,000. It says product supply has improved.
Worry ifThe backlog remains at or above $795,000, or NEXGEL says supply limits still delay orders.
Why it matters: NEXGEL recalled SilverSeal from Amazon to support a hospital launch. Hospital sales would show that this channel is opening up.
Supportive ifNEXGEL reports SilverSeal sales to hospitals. It names hospital orders or revenue from those sales.
Worry ifThe next report shows no SilverSeal hospital sales, or NEXGEL says the hospital launch has stalled.
Why it matters: The committee is reviewing assets, cash needs, and operations. Its plan may show how NEXGEL will address its weak cash position.
Watch forWithin 30 to 45 days, the committee presents a plan with steps to improve cash or operations. The plan supports BioNX Surgical or Eye Health & Aesthetics.
Also watch forNo plan is presented within 45 days, or the plan includes a shutdown or sale of a named growth business.
Why it matters: The Celularity rollout has moved more slowly than planned. Higher sales would show that the new business is gaining traction.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 10, NEXGEL reports revenue above $3.69 million, its Q2 2026 level, and links the increase to BioNX.
Worry ifRevenue is at or below $3.69 million, or the company reports that BioNX rollout delays continue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$379 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,264 loss on $10,000 · 12.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,395 loss on $10,000 · 94.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company disclosed a Nasdaq notice tied to a share price below $1.00. A clear compliance update would show progress on this listing issue.
Watch forNEXGEL reports that Nasdaq confirmed it is back in compliance with listing rules.
Also watch forNEXGEL reports it remains below the $1.00 threshold or gets another Nasdaq warning.