Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.97-3.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities to reach at least $28.32M in 2025-Q1 | A supporting condition in NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $28.32M. | Under Pressure | Cash from operations falls below $6.09M in future quarters | Cash from operations: $24.422M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.32M. The stored target says 2025-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202624,422,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NXRT is a real estate investment with a value-add strategy, meaning it upgrades properties to support higher rents. Its multi-year view is intact, with stable management and robust earnings quality, though recent financial performance is neutral and risk has risen.
The evidence describes NXRT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.61 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.32, so the valuation signals are mixed. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, and there is no evidence of a concentrated fragility risk.
Near term, recent earnings beats and growing upgrade activity support execution, but operating income was lower in 2026-Q2 than in the prior quarter and the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth is on track, while operating income growth is behind; elevated risk and a 35% miss probability make guidance and results important to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis benefits if rate cuts support rate-sensitive real estate and property upgrades keep producing rent premiums. It weakens if NXRT cuts guidance or sector peers show missed results or softer guidance.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact but depends on operating income stabilizing and management sustaining progress on property upgrades. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Dividend per share to increase to at least $0.53 in Q1 2026 | The company increased its dividend from $0.51 to $0.53 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.51 in future quarters | Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.53. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to at least $8.52M in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose from $7.42M to $8.52M in one year. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $7.42M in future quarters | Operating income: $6.363M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.52M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20266,363,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.02 → $-2.17 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.00 | $262,068,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.00 | $262,068,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.00 | $262,068,800 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.02 | $261,968,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.02 | $262,068,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.02 | $261,968,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.02 | $261,968,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.02 | $261,968,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.02 | $261,968,790 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.04 | $260,841,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.97 | $262,256,399 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.02 | $262,813,667 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.08 | $262,295,957 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.08 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.17 | $262,823,124 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.