NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.78+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
NXRT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-24
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. In a press release dated February 24, 2026, NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (the “…
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback show that management believes in the stock's value and health.
Supportive ifThey announced they finished buying back shares.
Worry ifNo updates or a halt in buyback activity.
Why it matters: Higher average rent could indicate stronger pricing power and improved revenue potential. This may support cash flow and dividends.
Supportive ifAverage effective rent per unit goes above $1,490.
Worry ifAverage effective rent per unit falls below $1,490.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifNXRT announces a dividend of $0.53 or higher for Q3.
Worry ifNXRT announces a dividend lower than $0.53 for Q3.
Why it matters: Active buybacks can show management believes in the company's value. This can help share price.
Supportive ifThe share buyback program announcement leads to real buybacks.
Worry ifNo share buybacks occur after the announcement.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $296 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,878 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means management wants to grow. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income is more than $8.52 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $8.52 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A positive stock price change would show investor trust in management's spending plans.
Supportive ifStock price increases following the announcement of the share buyback.
Worry ifStock price declines or remains flat after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations helps financial health. It allows for reinvestment and paying dividends.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities increases by more than 10% in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operating activities drops or stays the same in Q2.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector grows again, it may help NXRT's performance and outlook.
Watch forReal estate sector revenue growth speeds back up toward 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better lease trade-outs show stronger pricing power. They also show higher demand for units.
Supportive ifThe blended lease trade-out percentage rises to above -1.7% for Q3.
Worry ifBlended lease trade-out percentage worsens to below -2.1% for Q3.
Why it matters: An increase would show commitment to returning value to shareholders and confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the quarterly dividend per share above $0.53.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.53 or lowers it.
Why it matters: A larger decline in rent could indicate weakening demand and affect revenue.
Worry ifQ2 average effective rent per unit decreases more than -0.9% year over year.
Less concerning ifIn Q2, the average effective rent per unit stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Details on the buyback could signal confidence in the stock and improve market perception.
Supportive ifNexPoint shares clear details about the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo further details are provided, or the buyback is canceled.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifQ4 dividend remains at $0.53 per share.
Worry ifQ4 dividend is cut below $0.53 per share.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifA public announcement of a dividend increase by more than 5%.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: More upgrades with higher rent premiums could boost revenue and support dividend growth. This is a key focus for management.
Supportive ifNXRT completes more than 459 upgrades with an average rent premium above $90.
Worry ifFewer than 300 upgrades completed with lower rent premiums than $69.
Why it matters: A larger decline in Same Store NOI would signal worsening operating performance. This could impact future cash flow and dividends.
Worry ifQ3 Same Store NOI decreases more than -2.8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Same Store NOI remains stable or increases year over year.