NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.53+6.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. In a press release dated November 3, 2026, NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (the “ C…
Why it matters: Operating income was $7.1 million in Q2, below $7.9 million a year earlier. A rise above that mark would show a year-over-year gain.
Supportive ifNXRT reports Q3 operating income of more than $7.9 million.
Worry ifNXRT reports Q3 operating income at or below $7.1 million.
Why it matters: Same-store NOI fell 2.9% in Q2. A move to growth would show that property income is recovering.
Supportive ifNXRT reports Q3 same-store NOI growth above 0% year over year.
Worry ifNXRT reports Q3 same-store NOI down 2.9% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 upgrades earned a $90.60 monthly rent premium and a 23.0% return. Lower premiums may weaken the case for more upgrades.
Supportive ifNXRT reports more than 400 Q3 upgrades, a rent premium above $90 per month, and a return of at least 23%.
Worry ifNXRT reports a Q3 rent premium below $69 per month or a return below 19%.
Why it matters: NXRT paid $0.53 per share in Q1 and Q2 and approved the same amount for Q3. A cut would break that recent pattern.
Worry ifThe board declares a Q4 dividend of at least $0.53 per share.
Less concerning ifThe board declares a Q4 dividend below $0.53 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,681 loss on $10,000 · 46.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Waterford Loan is NXRT's first DST bridge loan. Its 10% rate is above the cost of borrowing, but the loan is funded through the credit line.
Watch forNXRT reports that the Waterford Loan remains current and earns 10% interest, above its borrowing cost.
Also watch forNXRT reports a missed Waterford Loan payment or an interest rate below its borrowing cost.