Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$187.97+1.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
17.90 → 19.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $1.86 | The company pays a steady $1.86 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend cut below $1.86 per share | Dividend per share: $1.86 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend = $1.86 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20261.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NXST is a media business with a mixed thesis, not a simple growth story. Its recent financial performance is strong, and the three-to-six-month thesis remains intact, but management execution is volatile and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence points to NXST being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The model has medium confidence, and no fragility signals were flagged.
Near term, earnings remain hard to judge because the industry has a high rate of misses and recent surprises have been erratic; the August earnings miss adds to that concern. Over the multi-year view, revenue has benefited from the TEGNA acquisition and political advertising, but litigation limits integration, while The CW’s audience growth and new distribution partnerships are positive but its profitability is not shown.
The next guidance update is a key near-term swing factor, since a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on NXST completing and defending the TEGNA acquisition, delivering integration benefits, and building The CW’s audience into stronger financial results. Rate cuts or continued strength among sector peers could support the backdrop, while the sector headwind remains a risk.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NXST has strong recent results and a valuation that looks cheap versus peers, but elevated risk and uneven execution leave the thesis dependent on delivery. The evidence supports an intact but closely watched multi-year view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose 65% to $160 million in Q1. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below $120M per quarter |
Net income: $120M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $160M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026120,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain strong revenue growth | A primary condition in Nexstar Media Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=30% YoY revenue growth for FY26. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 62.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30% YoY revenue growth for FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202662.164361 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete TEGNA acquisition | A primary condition in Nexstar Media Group's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisition by 2026-Q1. | Intact | Acquisition not completed by 2026-Q1 | Acquisition completed 2026-06-04 vs 2026-Q1 target MNA activity log shows 'acquisition_completed' on 2026-06-04; FCC rule changes and conference remarks reinforce integration progress. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.20 → $19.05 · observed estimates
$7.66B → $7.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.20 | $7,657,638,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.20 | $7,657,638,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.20 | $7,657,638,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.20 | $7,657,638,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $20.02 | $7,624,158,797 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $24.13 | $7,656,138,950 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.13 | $7,655,730,230 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $24.13 | $7,655,730,230 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.30 | $7,611,540,070 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.99 | $7,622,444,512 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.40 | $7,583,945,083 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $18.04 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $17.90 | $7,564,836,709 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.05 | $7,562,979,566 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.