Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$176.83-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Nexstar is on track to increase net income. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifEarnings per share is over $2.00. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifEarnings per share falls below $1.50, suggesting weaker results.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means Nexstar is controlling costs well. This helps them make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifOperating income decreases or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improved sector growth could boost Nexstar's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows Nexstar is doing well with TEGNA and running smoothly.
Supportive ifQ2 net income is over $160 million, showing strong financial results.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $140 million, which may show problems.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,901 loss on $10,000 · 39.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in net income margin indicate how well Nexstar is managing costs and growing profits.
Watch forNet income margin improves to above 12% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNet income margin drops below 10% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Nexstar keeps its dividend. This shows it is financially healthy. It also keeps its promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifNexstar announces a quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share next quarter.
Worry ifNexstar cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.
Why it matters: Strong ad growth shows Nexstar is integrating TEGNA well and is strong in the market.
Supportive ifQ3 advertising revenue grows more than 50% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 advertising revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The CW's audience growth affects ad revenue and company performance. Strong growth shows a good strategy.
Supportive ifThe CW reports a year-over-year audience growth of more than 10%.
Worry ifThe CW's audience growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The legal outcome will affect Nexstar's plans to combine with TEGNA. A good ruling helps their growth.
Watch forA court ruling that lets Nexstar integrate TEGNA without limits.
Also watch forA ruling keeps the preliminary injunction. This slows down integration and growth.
Why it matters: The dividend shows Nexstar's financial health and how they use money. Regular dividends mean stability.
Watch forThe Board declares a dividend increase above $1.86 per share.
Also watch forThe Board announces a decrease in the dividend or suspends it.