Nexstar Media Group (NXST)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$185.12+3.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
NXST — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-30
Other Events. On October 30, 2026, Nexstar Media Group, Inc. issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit No. 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend is payable on November 27, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 13, 2026.
Why it matters: Nexstar reported $238 million of adjusted free cash flow and repaid $409 million of debt in Q2. More cash and debt paydown would support its debt plan.
Supportive ifThe November 5 results show adjusted free cash flow above $238 million. They also show debt repayment above $409 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $238 million, or Nexstar adds debt instead of repaying it.
Why it matters: The order limits how Nexstar and TEGNA can work together. A change could affect the path to combining their operations.
Watch forThe Ninth Circuit narrows the order or dismisses the state plaintiffs after the Q4 2026 oral argument.
Also watch forThe Ninth Circuit leaves the order in place or keeps the state plaintiffs in the case.
Why it matters: The CW's total-day audience grew 10% year over year in June. New streaming access could bring more viewers and advertisers.
Supportive ifThe CW reports audience growth above 10% year over year after the Roku Channel launch in fall 2026 and ESPN App sports launch.
Worry ifThe CW reports flat or lower audience growth year over year after those launches.
Why it matters: The trial is set for July 6, 2027. A cap change could also shape how regulators review the deal.
Watch forThe court keeps the July 6, 2027 trial date, and the FCC adopts case-by-case reviews instead of the ownership cap.
Also watch forThe trial is delayed or the FCC keeps the national ownership cap in place.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,901 loss on $10,000 · 39.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.